International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mark Sutton: So Gabe, it’s a valiant try. Let me just see if this helps you and the other analysts and our investors. So our pricing, as always, the prices we charge and the mechanisms we use are really between IP and our customers. And we’re not going to comment on those specifics or provide forecasting on pricing for the future. As you know, we never do that. But I will refer you to the Citibank conference that I spoke at publicly in November. I — in response to a question about a $20 publication down at that time, I stated that we didn’t feel that it was reflective of our experience with our customers. And in terms of the experience over the last 2 months, with our containerboard customers. The fact that the index stayed flat in January, again, is not reflective of the pricing we have been invoicing.

So if you get to your question about the relevancy of the index, it’s true. The index is serving what is increasingly a very small open market. And because of that, it feels like there’s a movement of some subjectivity in that process in addition to what’s actually happening. So based on what we’ve been charging our customers as well as other public data, we don’t feel the index over the last few quarters, a couple of quarters has been reflective of what’s really happening in the industry. And as I said at Citi, we use this index. It’s not perfect, but it works for the supplier, IT and it works for our customers, because corrugated packaging is not something our customers want to work on weekly or monthly with pricing. It’s really important to their business, but it’s not their core product.

It’s running on high-speed finishing lines, and it needs to work, and they don’t want to deal with economics. This index through history has worked as a starting point for discussions up or down. It doesn’t set the price, as you know. So we will continue to evaluate, and we are evaluating with our customers, is it’s still working for us or not, as 2 parties in a business relationship. And if we conclude it’s not, we will work on doing it a different way. And that’s probably all I can say about that at this point.

Gabrial Hajde: No, Mark, listen, I think that was very clear and helpful at least for me. Secondarily, the $400 million that you mentioned in terms of — I don’t know if it was newly-identified cost savings, maybe a second turn of the crank on Building a Better IP. And then I think the $240 million or so of fixed cost savings from the 2 or 3 machine closures. Can you maybe delineate between the legacy build and better IP, I think the net of that was plus $540 million. And then we’ve got the $230 million or $240 million from the 2 plant closures, where does this $400 million number that you referenced? How does that fit into the equation? Just so we’re not double or triple counting.

Timothy Nicholls: Yes. No, good question. This is Tim. I mean if you just look at the major items that I called out in my prepared remarks around the go-to-market strategy, and how that’s playing out. And then the mill closure is to fixed cost savings. I think you get pretty close to the $400 million. There’s obviously other initiatives. That’s why we say more than $400 million. We’ve got any number of initiatives across all of our businesses and at the center. But we thought it was a good reference point given the significant items that are happening and happened late last year.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

Anthony Pettinari: I’m wondering if you could talk a little bit more about January box shipment trends and specifically on the freeze, did that delay shipments or destroy shipments? And if there’s any kind of quantification there either way? And just anything you’d say about sort of customer inventories and your inventories as we start out February?

William Hamic: Sure, Anthony, this is Tom. You point out the winter storm, but that is a very big impact on January. So I’ll start with the quarter. And we see continued improvement in the quarter in terms of demand if you subtract out our experience with go-to-market, we think the market is going to grow about 2% year-over-year in the first quarter. So that’s a continued momentum that Tim talked about, and we’re very pleased with that growth. In terms of January, it really does mask exactly what’s happening. The thing I can confidently say to you is, nothing about the winter storm and the subsequent business activity would suggest we’re off of forecast for Q1. It’s just really hard to look through this way, we had plant closures, customers have plant closures.

And then the last thing I would add is the anecdotal feedback from our especially local customers has been surprisingly positive about the first half of the year. We’ll see how it plays out, but so far, very good. Last piece, you asked about inventory, I’m sorry — I — we have not — sorry…

Anthony Pettinari: No, no, go ahead, please.

William Hamic: We have not seen restocking yet broadly. That’s our estimate of what’s happening in the marketplace. And so we think destocking is obviously over or there are certain segments that may be bouncing back and forth. But if you look at last year’s demand for boxes and you take what is always a pretty good reference for consumer spending, retail spending and box demand, there’s still a lot of ground to be made up. And so I feel very good about the inventory levels in the market.