InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (NYSE:IHG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson: And then in terms of the system fund, Jamie, I think there’s a couple of things there. One, when the accounting change a few years ago, as I know you’ll remember, we used to effectively do it on a cash accounting basis because the system fund is either a profit or a loss for us. It’s just how much cash it generates and when we deploy that. And we try to sort of match the cash in and the cash out so that we’re not basically just taking owners money that they’re giving us to spend on their behalf. And so if revenues as recognized are lower than the cash that we received, we’re okay with that. And remember, revenues are recognized when points are consumed, not necessarily when points are created under the revenue recognition rules there. So you can get a delay there. But over time, we run the system fund to a breakeven basis, certainly on a cash basis.

Operator: And the next question goes to Vicki Stern of Barclays.

Vicki Lee: Firstly, on the U.S. RevPAR, I guess the industry data we see has been a little bit softer just in the last few weeks. Anything to fact that you’re seeing by way of any slowdown, be it leisure, business travel and just sort of more broadly your thoughts specifically on the U.S. outlook? Related to that, just thinking more globally, I guess your U.S. peers have guided for RevPAR year-on-year sort of 6% at one % and 8.5% at the middle of the other. I guess your mix is more similar to bit higher, I think, in fee contribution from China. But how would you sort of RevPAR outlook, given what your peers have commented on so far? And then just finally on the share buyback, how are you sort of landing on the $750 million, obviously, I guess, at the top end of your leverage range or upper end of your leverage range on a trading basis.

But more broadly, how are you thinking about cash returns going forward in the context, obviously, you have a higher interest rate environment from here and what’s the right leverage given that?

Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson: Great. Thanks, Vicki. So in terms of U.S. RevPAR and what we’re seeing in current demand levels, as I think Keith mentioned, we’re not seeing any signs of slowdown in demand or the rate environment. And it’s always a little difficult comparing it against prior years. But when we look at forward bookings, when we look what’s on the books and we look at our indications of corporate negotiated rates, bookings further out, it still looks very, very strong. Of course, we continue to monitor it to see if there’s any signs or anything but still a very strong environment. In terms of guidance for 2023, yes, obviously, we don’t have formal guidance. But we typically perform very close to what Hilton and Marriott do.

And as you say, our business mix is closer to Hilton. So that seems a reasonable proxy and China will come back strongly. And I think, again, as Keith mentioned, we’ve seen very strong demand there with the spring festival seeing demand at 90% of the 2019 level. So a lot of recovery to come but very encouraging signs so far.

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