ImmunityBio, Inc. (IBRX): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on ImmunityBio, Inc. on HalfBakedInnovations’s Substack by Biotech Distilled. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on IBRX. ImmunityBio, Inc.’s share was trading at $3.9500 as of January 15th.

ImmunityBio, Inc., a commercial stage biotechnology company, develops next-generation therapies that bolster the natural immune systems to defeat cancers and infectious diseases. IBRX has achieved a major inflection point with the Saudi Food and Drug Authority granting accelerated approval for ANKTIVA in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and full approval for NMIBC with carcinoma in situ, marking the world’s first regulatory approval of ANKTIVA in lung cancer.

This milestone arrives just days after the U.S.-Saudi Biotech Alliance Summit, reinforcing that the company’s engagement with Saudi regulators was strategic and premeditated rather than symbolic. The lung cancer approval, based on Phase 2 QUILT-3.055 data, positions Saudi Arabia as a regulatory sandbox where ImmunityBio can commercialize ANKTIVA ahead of U.S. Phase 3 confirmation, effectively bridging the “valley of death” between its bladder cancer launch and lung cancer data readout.

By convincing a G20 regulator to act on evidence linking lymphocyte restoration to survival, the company has validated both the biological signal and its cytokine-based mechanism of action, providing a powerful scientific receipt. This regulatory arbitrage meaningfully de-risks the story. Commercially, ImmunityBio can now pursue near-term revenue in a high-margin market through its local partner, Biopharma Cigalah, rather than solely funding operations through equity while awaiting U.S. approval. Strategically, the approval strengthens the probability of eventual FDA success by demonstrating external regulatory confidence in the lung cancer dataset.

Financially, it establishes a valuation floor, as an approved lung cancer asset in the MENA region can be monetized, licensed, or used as collateral, reducing dilution risk. While questions remain around pricing, upfront payments, and near-term cash flow visibility, the Saudi approvals materially improve ImmunityBio’s survival odds and shift the stock from a watchlist name to a speculative buy with asymmetric upside tied to further regulatory and commercial execution.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) by YouAlwaysHaveAChoice in February 2025, which highlighted pandemic-driven demand optionality, institutional accumulation, and bullish technical and options signals. MRNA’s stock price has appreciated by 18.26% since our coverage due to rising virus-related concerns. Biotech Distilled shares a similar thesis but emphasizes regulatory arbitrage, scientific validation, and commercialization at ImmunityBio.

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Disclosure: None.