Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA): A Bear Case Theory

We came across a bearish thesis on Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) on The Bear Cave’s Substack by Edwin Dorsey. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on IBTA. Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)’s share was trading at $46.44 as of 10^th June. IBTA’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.67 and 42.37 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Ibotta (NYSE: IBTA), a recently public digital couponing company with a $1.25 billion valuation, aims to “make every purchase rewarding” through its cashback app and AI-powered platform that integrates promotional offers directly into retailer loyalty programs. The company connects consumer brands with value-conscious shoppers, offering discounts on household staples like Cheetos and Brawny paper towels while helping brands drive customer acquisition.

While the core idea of combining AI with digital promotions has attracted early optimism, especially in a market increasingly sensitive to cost-saving tools, the reality post-IPO has been far more turbulent. Since its April 2024 debut, Ibotta’s stock has lost half its value amid disappointing growth results.

The Bear Cave paints a starkly negative outlook, describing Ibotta as a “broken business” plagued by deeper structural issues. The report points to widespread consumer disengagement, internal employee dissatisfaction, and tensions in partner relationships, all of which compound the risk profile. Moreover, the emergence of fraud allegations raises serious concerns about the credibility and scalability of the platform.

For skeptics, Ibotta’s challenges are not merely cyclical or IPO-related growing pains, but signs of a deteriorating business model in a highly competitive space. While some investors may still see a discounted opportunity in a digital-first couponing platform with AI ambitions, The Bear Cave argues that negative growth and fundamental weaknesses could push the stock even lower, suggesting that current valuations may not yet reflect the full extent of the downside risk.

Previously, we highlighted a bullish thesis on Ibotta (IBTA) by northeasternsvf on X.com, which emphasized the company’s capital-efficient pay-per-sale model, exclusive partnerships with Walmart and Instacart, and strong margin expansion potential through third-party integrations. The stock has depreciated by roughly 36 %, favoring The Bear Cave’s thesis, which disputes Ibotta’s bullish narrative by citing consumer disengagement, strained partnerships, and fraud concerns, undermining claims of scalability, brand strength, and operational momentum. It argues the stock’s post-IPO decline reflects deeper structural flaws, not just short-term growing pains.

Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 8 hedge fund portfolios held IBTA at the end of the first quarter which was 15 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of IBTA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.