How Fuel Inflation Forced a Reset in Wall Street’s View of American Airlines (AAL)

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) is one of the stocks most affected by inflation.

On March 12, 2026, Evercore ISI analyst Duane Pfennigwerth maintained an In-Line rating on American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) and cut his price target to $14 from $17 as rising fuel costs pressured the airline’s outlook. Evercore said the latest dislocation in airline inputs was a “2.8-sigma event,” comparing it with periods such as 2008 and the early phase of the Ukraine war, while noting that spot jet fuel was running about 53% above the first-quarter-to-date average as of March 11.

Pixabay/Public Domain

That caution came as American was already dealing with a more expensive fuel backdrop. On January 27, the company said its first-quarter 2026 guidance reflected the impact of Winter Storm Fern, including a $150 million to $200 million revenue hit and a roughly 1.5-point increase in CASM-ex. Then on March 17, American lifted its first-quarter revenue outlook to more than 10% growth, but said fuel volatility had created an estimated $400 million expense hit and pushed expected results toward the lower end of its prior loss guidance.

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) is a major network carrier operating domestic and international passenger and cargo service through the American Eagle regional brand and its mainline fleet.

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