Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (NASDAQ:HST) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Sourav Ghosh: Anthony, so let me start off by saying sort of what I said in my prepared remarks is, the second half of the year for us in our guidance assumes some sort of a slowdown, whether it’s at the low-end, which would be a severe slowdown over the high-end, which is a mild slowdown. And our midpoint is effectively a moderate slowdown. The way we are thinking about it when you look at our guidance is the second half. I’ll sort of go through each segment. From a group perspective, we are assuming that the second half will only see about half the group room nights pick up in the year, for the year compared to 2022. And as you may recall, 2022 had meaningful in the year for the year pickup. And as I said in my prepared remarks, in the fourth quarter alone, we had 21% more pickup in the quarter for the quarter.

So in other words, the anticipation is if there is a slowdown, you would have less in the year for the year pickup. That’s on the group side. The rates, obviously, in the group sides are locked in, so that’s a positive. On the transient side, we expect that second half to be somewhat flattish. So with leisure rates being slightly up driven by our downturn in convention hotels, but our resorts somewhat flat to maybe slightly down depending on the market. So overall, transient rates and occupancy to be about flattish for the second half. And so when you really think about our guidance for the full year, our occupancy ends up being up a couple of points and rate effectively flattish again, all this is tied to the midpoint. When you think about sort of our margin performance quarter-by-quarter, reality is the distribution of EBITDA that we saw in 2019 is going to be very — but we are expecting very similar in 2023.

So in ’19, we had, I think, it was about 27% or so of our EBITDA came from Q1, about $29 million from Q2, 20% in Q3 and 24% from Q4. Very similar sort of cadence is what we are expecting from 2023.

Operator: Our next question is coming from David Katz with Jefferies.

David Katz: Jim, I wanted to go back to something you touched on in your comment and just to make sure we’re clear about it. You talked about some of the hotels you bought that are, I think you said currently run rate in about 10x or 12x EBITDA based on sort of what you paid. Could you just go back to those circumstances and talk about if we found ourselves at a 2019 normalized environment were those multiples or cap rates would be.

Jim Risoleo: Well, we don’t expect to get back to 2019 levels of rate or performance at these properties, David. We are very confident that the rate set the hotels are able to charge today for the most part, sustainable. There might be a little bit of a pullback. But we did message when we bought each property what the EBITDA multiple was based on 2019 numbers and what the cap rate was. And I can’t tell you how pleased we are with the performance of these properties over the last several years. So we feel very confident that we’re going to be able to close to maintain the current rates that we’re getting today subject to there being a very severe downturn that’s affecting the consumer. We’re just not seeing it today.

Operator: Our next question is coming from Chris Darling with Green Street.

Chris Darling: Can you provide an update on ’23 group pace across some of your larger group focused markets. So thinking specifically about San Francisco, New York, Orlando and then maybe any other data points that might be helpful as well.