Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

That’s really what’s going to be impactful to helping drive the business for growth and not just continue to dissolve base business and lower the category both in volume and dollars. Thank you.

Rupesh Parikh: Great. Thank you. I’ll pass it along.

Operator: Thank you. We have our next question coming from the line of Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead, sir.

Peter Galbo: Hey, guys. Good morning. Can you hear me okay?

Jim Snee: Yeah, we can hear you, Peter.

Peter Galbo: Great. Thanks. Maybe just one quick one clarification. Jacinth, did you give a net interest expense guide at all on the quarter — I’m sorry, for the year? I think you have a bond that’s going to come due in June that will need to maybe be [refied] (ph). So, maybe if you could just elaborate on that?

Jacinth Smiley: Yeah, good morning, Peter. So, yes, we do have that’s coming due — we have $950 million coming due here early June. We did not give guidance on the interest numbers. We certainly are working through and looking at options to pay down that debt. We haven’t landed in a spot yet. What I can tell you though, we have definitely baked in higher interest expense in the numbers that we have guided to here for the year.

Peter Galbo: Okay, got it. That’s helpful. And then just maybe, Jim, in the conversation around elasticity, I guess what’s been more notable is just the impact from kind of the reduced SNAP payments maybe took a bit more time to start impacting volumes than others expected. Can you just talk about what you’re seeing in real time? [indiscernible] I would think at least some exposure there, but what kind of the SNAP impact has been? And then maybe when you think it starts to get better or even modestly flip to a tailwind? Thanks very much.

Jim Snee: Yeah, great. Thanks, Peter. I mean, I think the macro discussion has been filled with a lot of different information. When we think about some of the economic uncertainties that are showing up in these elasticities, we have talked about the reduction in SNAP, obviously, we’re talking about interest rates being high, and as rates go up, that’s taking more people’s money, student loan mortgages, which all of that can lead to a depleted or lower position. And — so, what’s interesting for us is, I think, again, as we go through this category by category, we’re seeing different behavior in these different categories. And so, we have some premium categories that continue to do very well. To your point, I think in the short term, some of the center store items have been pressured and there could be a link back to some of the reduced SNAP or other — the macroeconomic issues.

I think, again, to Deanna’s point, our job is to be able to restore that growth and how do we do that by connecting with the consumer, reminding them of the value of our portfolio and making sure that we’re pulling the right levers, whether it’s promotion or advertising. Those are the things that we do. And so, we appreciate and understand that there might be some short-term impact, but we also know that we know how to navigate through this situation. And then, I would — I don’t know, Deanna, if there’s anything that you would want to add to that conversation.

Deanna Brady: The only thing I would add is, it’s very fluid. We’re watching it all very closely. I was talking to Jim and Jacinth yesterday, and I commented that I didn’t used to keep such a close eye on the four-week turns, but in this environment, four weeks actually are signaling things. An example is, the last four weeks in our convenient meals and protein category showed an improvement over what we saw in the fourth quarter in some of those areas where we felt that there was pullback from the consumer. And so, we’re keeping a close watch really on all our categories, our consumer, and working closely with our customers to navigate the macro environment that the consumer is facing. Thanks.

Peter Galbo: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We have our next question coming from the line of Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Michael Lavery: Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to touch on turkey again. It’s obviously unusual seasonally to have some of the pricing pressure that you’re seeing, but it seems maybe even a little bit more unexpected coupled with the resurgence in the avian flu. I guess, what does it take for pricing to recover? And then, you had mentioned how you’ve been factoring in the price pressure in your outlook. I guess maybe can you give us any sense of what conservatism is there? Or if pricing were to improve, how much of an impact that could have, and maybe just to — try to put it in some context?

Jim Snee: Yeah, I think, Michael, the question you’re asking about what’s it going to take. I think the turkey supply situation is in a unique situation right now because we had supply coming back. And obviously, as supply was coming back, there was a lot of work being done to restore the demand side of the business. And I don’t think those were yet perfectly aligned. So, I do believe from a supply side, as we sit here today, the supply is adequate to support the business. Now, how long does it support the business? How long do some of these outbreaks last? I think that — those are the uncertainties and the volatility that we talk about in this outlook. And so, as we do think about what we’ve built in to our outlook, we expect the turkey headwind across the enterprise to be about $0.10.

And big part of that is it’s a high volume business when we think about the whole turkey business. Again, you go from all-time high to dropping below a five-year average, and then, where does it go from here. And so, as we sit and — as we sat and worked through it, that was our estimate in terms of the impact of the business. Now, I think the other part of this to remember is, our job is to continue to set this business up for success. And so, we continue to talk about right-sizing and optimizing this business’ portfolio so that it does become more demand-driven, more value-added. Think about lean ground turkey, the work that we’re doing on the Foodservice side of the business, work in the K-12 channel. So, I mean, all of that factors into our outlook as we’re thinking about that in 2024.