Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ:HON) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Greg Lewis: Yes, maybe just to put numbers on Andy. As we showed in that slide, we’ve been doing $8-ish billion per year. The simple math for 2024 says just with Carrier, that number is 10 going in with just enough share repurchase to buy back the creep. So we’re going to be sitting at 18 through two years towards the 25 plus number. So the high confidence that we’re going to be above that level just with the math.

Andy Kaplowitz: And then just a quick follow up. You managed to grow Aero margin by 20 base points in Q4, even with [OE mix] (ph) being against you. And you talked about supply chain improving in 2024. I know you’re saying it’ll marginally stay in a tight range, but if the supply chain does continue to improve, is there an opportunity there with all of your productivity projects in that segment?

Vimal Kapur: Look, I mean, there are — there is a volume growth there, which will continue and the volume leverage gets offset by the OE mix, which I talked earlier, the OE mix remains strong. But we are also ending investing into aerospace. The volume growth is not coming accidentally. We have invested into our supply chain operations, supplier recovery, which is demonstrating the continuous volume growth occurred in 2023 and 2024. So when you put those facts together, that really drives the margin forecast for Aero at this point.

Andy Kaplowitz: Helpful, guys.

Vimal Kapur: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is now open.

Peter Arment: Thanks. Good morning, Vimal and Greg. Greg, just a quick one. You mentioned in just kind of the legacy segment SPS, you were talking about warehouse, the pipeline of kind of in the projects business, that there was some signs and there was some — at least some improvement there. Maybe if you just give us a little color there just because it’s — obviously it’s been a — that that particular area has had a big downturn here.

Vimal Kapur: Yes, I can start there and Greg can join. Look the pipeline, if I compare simple facts, our pipeline in Jan of 2024 compared to Jan of 2023 for warehouse automation projects, it’s up nearly 30%. So what it tells us is that, the basic value proposition and the long-term trend of warehouse automation are intact. But customers willingness to invest in this very tight market or uncertain market is what is holding them back for making capital decisions. So we remain absolutely convicted on this business and the foundational actions we have taken on continue to grow our aftermarket, they are really paying off. I mean, our aftermarket businesses crossed $0.5 billion mark in 2023. We expect double digit growth in aftermarket in 2024. And you can expect the business almost cupping a half project and half aftermarket in this year. So as the market confidence returns, we’ll see the growth back, and that’s supported by the pipeline we have and activity in the market.

Peter Arment: Very helpful color. Thanks. I’ll leave it at one.

Vimal Kapur: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Joe Ritchie: Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Vimal Kapur: Good morning, Joe.

Joe Ritchie: Maybe circling back to Nigel’s question on pricing, the three points that’s embedded into your expectations, is that disproportionately coming from Aero? Or how do I just kind of think about pricing across the segments?

Greg Lewis: Yes. So, Aero is probably on the mid to lower end of that, just given all the contract nature of their business and the other businesses, the other three segments are going to be a bit higher than that overall. So that’s really, without being too specific, that’s sort of directionally or notionally, I just think about it.

Joe Ritchie: Okay. Great. Thanks, Greg. And then the quick follow up to circling, I’m trying to square the commentary on HBT and the destocking that you’re seeing in the products business. With — obviously, you’re excited about the security acquisition and the growth profile of that business appears to be different. I’m just trying to square those comments and maybe you can kind of help me with what you’re seeing within your own security business today.

Vimal Kapur: No, as I mentioned before, we expect the front end of the year growth to be more driven by solutions side of the business. We are carrying forward meaningful backlog, both in projects and services. And as the year progresses, we expect short cycle recovery to be the key factor for growth as the year passes along. And net-net, we expect low single digit growth in building technologies, but strong margin expansion. Our commercial excellence actions are in place and we remain confident that we’re going to have a meaningful progress in the year, both on growth and margin expansion.

Greg Lewis: Yes. I mean, I would just say, Joe, zoom out for a minute. And we’re coming towards the end of a three year period where, again, COVID, then followed by big supply chain constraints, followed by massive inflation. And that’s why you hear everyone talking about what’s going on in inventory stocks all over. And yes, as that thing normalizes, that’s going to make things clear across many of our products businesses, including HBT. But more broadly, again, zooming out, we love the — we love where this business is going, and also creating that sizable position in security with a very attractive asset that we’re bringing on from Carrier. Yes, we’re very excited about that opportunity because we think that’s going to be accretive growth across the portfolio for us. So it’s just a matter of, I would say, differentiating between the here and now and the medium to longer term with those comments.

Joe Ritchie: Helpful. Thank you guys.

Operator: Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to CEO, Vimal Kapur, for closing remarks.

Vimal Kapur: Thank you. I want to thank all our shareholders for your ongoing support and our Honeywell colleagues who continue to enable us to outperform in any environment. Our future is bright and we look forward to updating you on our progress as we execute on our commitments. Thank you very much for listening and please stay safe and healthy.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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