Hess Midstream LP (NYSE:HESM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

John Gatling: And, Brian, just to build on that a little bit and Justin Kronstadt has talked about this several times from the North Dakota Pipeline Authority. They’re forecasting gas growth somewhere from the three and a half BCF growing up to near six BCF by mid 2030. So, as Jonathan mentioned in the prior response to the earlier question from Jeremy, and then also kind of adding into this, there definitely is going to be opportunity for further growth and, that will support the infrastructure, but also, as Jonathan mentioned, sets us up strong from a financial perspective as well.

Operator: Thanks, Brian. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Doug Irwin from Citi. Your question, please.

Douglas Irwin: Thanks for the question. My first one is just on capital allocation. We assume a similar size and cadence to the buybacks moving forward, even with the increased financial flexibility guidance you’ve given today. And I’m just curious if there’s a point where it might make sense within your strategy to look at other potential uses of capital, whether that’s more organic growth, like some of the projects you’ve just talked about, or maybe even some potential unreal opportunities?

John Gatling: Sure. Well, in terms of the repurchase program, really, as we did this past year, we expect to continue to do multiple repurchases per year. As including 2024 through 2026. So don’t expect a change in that program, utilizing the capacity, both the free cash flow after distribution, so the building cash balance, as well as the leverage capacity that we have. And so with those, as we’ve done in the past, we’d also expect the opportunity to increase our dividend level as well, to be able to maintain the same distributed cash flow that we had prior to each of the repurchases, so no expected change in that. As we go forward, I think one of the things in terms of the use of our capital allocation, obviously part of our financial strategy, as we said, is continued prioritization of shareholder returns, including the ongoing 5% growth, but also incremental returns, such as the repurchases and associated dividend distribution level increases.

But I think we’re in such a great position, as we just talked about, that with the existing investment that we have and really stable capital, we can really drive just through 2026, as we’ve talked about, 10% growth in volumes, more than 10% growth in EBITDA, including 12.5% growth in 2024 alone. And then on that stable capital, really driving more than 10% growth in free cash flow. So of course, we’ll continue to evaluate, particularly assets and the like, as we’ve done in the past, but the bar is very high because our existing plan already drives growth and doesn’t require significant capital investment, really stable capital to really capture that growth.

Douglas Irwin: Got it. Thanks. And my second question is just around the contract structure. We’re into the second term here, which has 10 more years on it, but there’s potentially some new changes coming up at the sponsor level and the board. I’m just wondering how you’re thinking about the potential for the contract terms to change or be renegotiated. It’s something we receive questions on a lot. So really just looking to better understand how you think about your contracted position moving forward.

John Gatling: Yeah, there’s really nothing really to say, because, as I said before, there’s no change in the contract and no mechanism to change the contract. So we don’t expect any change in the contract going forward.

Operator: Got it. Thanks for the question. Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And our next question comes from the line of John McKay from Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.

John McKay: Hey, everyone. Thanks for the time. I want to get back to the growth outlook again and maybe take it from another angle. Are you guys expecting any higher underlying oil outlook than kind of last time you gave an update? Or is this really just, hey, getting a better sense of what the rising GORs look like, and that’s what’s driving most of this? And then on a related note, is the underlying assumption of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent for your sponsor still kind of the driving bogey there?

John Gatling: Yeah, so just on the oil versus the gas question, overall, I would say the wells continue to perform very, very strongly. And I would say that it’s not necessarily a new set from an oil perspective. It’s just that continued growth in gas. And as I mentioned, you can see it across the basin that gas does tend to outpace on a slight basis, outpace oil. And we’re just kind of looking at that longer term, and we’re building that infrastructure that we feel like we need to kind of set that up. So from an overall development perspective, the gas is coming. As it relates to Hess’s plans, we’re close to, I mean, Hess on a net BOE basis is close to 200,000 barrels a day now. So, I mean, I think as we think about the four rigs for the balance of this year, we’re really kind of knocking on that door already.