Here’s Why Burford Capital (BUR) is in Greenhaven Road Capital’s Uncertain Timing Bucket

Greenhaven Road Capital, an investment management company, released its second-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the second quarter, the fund returned approximately +14% net of fees and expenses, bringing the YTD returns to under +1%. YTD, the Russell 2000 has returned -1.8%. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025.

In its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, Greenhaven Road Capital highlighted stocks such as Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR). Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) offers legal finance products and services. The one-month return of Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) was -2.44%, and its shares gained 2.95% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On August 18, 2025, Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) stock closed at $13.61 per share, with a market capitalization of $2.978 billion.

Greenhaven Road Capital stated the following regarding Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) in its second quarter 2025 investor letter:

“Another holding that fits squarely in my high expected value, uncertain timing bucket is Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR), the litigation funder. Burford ended the quarter with a market capitalization of approximately $2.5B while having the rights to multiple $1B+ potential judgements including Sundance Resources, Sysco food price fixing claims, and most importantly the YPF Argentina case.

The aggrieved YPF shareholders (and Burford through their litigation funding) have a judgement against Argentina totaling more than $16B of which Burford would be entitled to more than $6B. On June 30th, a Federal Judge gave Argentina 2 weeks to place shares representing its 51% stake in YPF into an account at BNY Mellon in the U.S. as a partial settlement of the $16B judgement. Burford’s portion would be worth approximately $2.5B (the entire quarter ending market cap).

Argentina has appealed this decision, as they are appealing the larger ruling. The YPF settlement accrues interest for Burford at over $300M per year. It is my expectation that the YPF case gets settled in 2026 for more than 50 cents on the dollar paid out over 5+ years. The combination of current business + YPF proceeds + additional progress in other cases gets us somewhere between a double and triple of the share price, which is impacted by individual cases and the discount, if any, applied to YPF.

There are reasons for a settlement next year, including the Argentinian election cycle and Argentina’s desire to tap the capital markets, but uncertain timing is an understatement.”

In another article, we covered Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) and shared a bullish thesis on the company.  Greenhaven Road Capital shared a positive outlook on Burford Capital Limited (NYSE:BUR) in its previous quarter investor letter. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q2 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.