Here are Greenhaven Road Capital’s Views on Cellebrite (CLBT)

Greenhaven Road Capital, an investment management company, released its first-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the first quarter, the fund returned around -12% net of fees and expenses, trailing the Russell 2000 by approximately 2% in large part. The Q1 letter focused on President Trump’s Liberation Day and the attendant tariff policies rather than company fundamentals. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025.

In its first-quarter 2025 investor letter, Greenhaven Road Capital highlighted stocks such as Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT). Headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel, Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) is a software company that develops solutions for legally sanctioned investigations. The one-month return of Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) was -14.37%, and its shares gained 40.99% of their value over the last 52 weeks.  On May 21, 2025, Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) stock closed at $16.89 per share with a market capitalization of $4.009 billion.

Greenhaven Road Capital stated the following regarding Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) in its Q1 2025 investor letter:

“Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) – As one of a very small handful of suppliers selling unique software and services critical to law enforcement, there is virtually no risk of Cellebrite being impacted from the tariffs. While there has been some concern about DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) slashing government contracts, the 20% of Cellebrite’s revenues that are related to the federal government mostly address high-profile priorities like securing the border and investigating the legal status of individuals. Cellebrite tools are unlikely to be cut.

What follows is pure speculation on my part, a simple connecting of dots. Cellebrite came public via a SPAC; their sponsor, True Wind Capital, has 1.5M shares that will vest if the Cellebrite share price is above $30 by their contractual deadline, providing a $45M windfall. However, the fuse is getting shorter – they have until August 2026 for the share price to hit $30, up from its current $19-20 level. The interim CEO, Thomas Hogan, was an operating partner at Vista Equity Partners. I think he is True Wind’s best chance of getting to $30 in the next 16 months, and I think the Cellebrite CEO role is Thomas’ best chance at generational wealth. I would not be at all surprised if Thomas is named permanent CEO with an options-heavy package in the $30 range, and I would only be a little surprised if the company is sold for $30 before August 2026.”

A female engineer in a datacenter, wearing a headset, monitoring digital data.

Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 34 hedge fund portfolios held Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) at the end of the fourth quarter compared to 30 in the third quarter. Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) reported revenue of $107.5 million in Q1 2025, representing an increase of 20% year-over-year. While we acknowledge the potential of Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is as promising as NVIDIA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the undervalued AI stock set for massive gains.

In another article, we covered Cellebrite DI Ltd. (NASDAQ:CLBT) and shared Greenhaven Road Capital’s views on the company in the previous quarter. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q1 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.