Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Ryan Morrissey: Yes. Thanks, Joe. On the LiveWire front, to your question on the units and the change in expectations there, the majority of the 2023 units were expected to come from Del Mar. And as we talked about in the opening comments, we’ve changed the time line on that bike. So given the new time line, we’re now expecting sales to ramp up in the second half of the year for that motorcycle. So, we brought the units down accordingly, taking the industry seasonality into account. So the bike continues to look amazing. We’re laser-focused on getting it to market, but the change in the time line is what’s driving that change in the units.

Operator: The next question is from James Hardiman with Citi. Your line is open.

James Hardiman: Hey, good morning. So, I wanted to hone in on that, I think you said flat to positive retail growth for the year. Maybe unpack how you’re thinking about the industry €“ the broader motorcycle industry, which I know you don’t entirely compete in all those categories. So maybe Touring and Cruisers, how you’re thinking about those segments sort of based on what you’re seeing in the market right now and then sort of assumptions for market share, obviously? We don’t know what your product pipeline is, but how you think about? How you’re going to perform relative to the industry to get us to that flat to up retail number?

Jochen Zeitz: Yes. Look, we are €“ I’m not really looking at the industry at this point. I’m just looking at what we think we can achieve as a company, as a brand in 2023. So unpacking retail, if you look at our seasonality, as I said earlier, we would expect then in order to achieve a flat to slightly positive retail growth that to come in the core quarters of the second or the third quarter with the first and fourth being flat or slightly down. So that’s how the year would unfold. But in terms of the industry, we’re really focusing on our segments and we believe that we can €“ we have an opportunity here to grow. That said, we want to absolutely make sure that the desirability of our product, the MSRP, in market is €“ and the desirability is maintained.

So whatever the demand will bring, we’ll adjust accordingly to protect our profit margin. But overall, what we are seeing now is good demand, but it’s very early. So any demand segments now cannot be taken as an indicative demand segment for the coming months?

Gina Goetter: Hey James, this is Gina. Just to provide a little bit more color there on the flat to positive. So as Jochen said, we don’t really hone in and focus much on the share gains. I mean we are the categories when you think about Touring and Cruiser, we are the market. When you look at what we delivered, I think we had it in one of our slides, we did deliver share growth in those categories in 2022 within the U.S. Also keep in mind that we are comping as we get into Q2, Q3, the production suspension. So even though on the back end, we were able to make up from a wholesale shipment standpoint in 2022, we really missed out on key riding season. So as you think about our retail growth next year overall, Q1, Q4, probably more muted where you really see the benefit is going to be within Q2, Q3.

James Hardiman: Makes sense. Thank you.

Operator: The next question is from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Your line is open.

David MacGregor: Yes. Good morning everyone. I guess just a quick one for the model on free cash flow. I mean, you’re coming off $548 million 2022, I noticed you haven’t provided explicit guidance on free cash flow. But how should we be thinking about that in general terms? And what’s achievable in terms of working capital give up as a contributor to that number?