H World Group Limited (HTHT): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on H World Group Limited on Johnny’s bearish Investing’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HTHT. H World Group Limited’s share was trading at $37.18 as of September 10th. HTHT’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.36 and 35.34 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

H World Group (HTHT) is a leading Chinese hotel operator with a diverse portfolio spanning budget to upscale hotels, including partnerships with global brands. The company’s moat is built on a combination of proprietary technology, a robust loyalty program, a diversified brand portfolio, and extensive domestic presence. Its “Huazhu Cloud” system integrates PMS, CRS, RMS, and CRM functions, with an AI-driven RMS optimizing room rates in real time, driving occupancy and profitability.

The “H Rewards” program, with 288 million members, generates 76% of bookings through direct channels, reducing reliance on OTAs. HTHT operates over 12,000 hotels across China, with expansion plans focused 99% domestically and an asset-light “manachised” model combining franchising and direct management, allowing scalability while maintaining operational control. Economies of scale and superior RevPAR support strong margins, attract franchisees, and reinforce the brand.

While Q2 2025 results show modest revenue growth and slight RevPAR declines, these are largely temporary effects of accelerated hotel openings, renovations, and investments in midscale and upscale properties. Newly opened leased and owned hotels incur pre-opening costs and low initial revenues, which will normalize as they mature. Management remains confident in achieving the 2030 target of 20,000 hotels, backed by a strong development pipeline and historical growth trends.

HTHT’s competitive ecosystem, ongoing investments in brand quality, and expanding scale create a sustainable advantage. With projected earnings and free cash flow growth of 10–15% annually through 2030, the stock, currently trading around $35, offers potential annual returns of 15–20%. Even under conservative scenarios, the company’s resilient operations and growth trajectory make it a compelling investment with asymmetric upside potential.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) by Lux Opes Research in March 2025, which highlighted 2024 revenue growth, RevPAR improvement, and shareholder-friendly buybacks. The company’s stock price has been flat since our coverage. The thesis still stands as IHG continues leveraging its global footprint and premium brand. Johnny’s bearish Investing shares a similar perspective but emphasizes HTHT’s AI-driven operations and domestic scale.

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Disclosure: None.