Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your next question will come from the line of Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes: I have a question regarding dividends. I guess you already announced the dividend this year, I think, April. So the next quarter is already now. But given you are having this 6%, 6.5% ROE guidance, my question is regarding 2023, so 2024 payout, right? What should we expect? Because in the previous years, you have been paying 40%, 45% of previous year’s payout. But given that we will be lower and given you have debt at the family, the holding, I’m not sure if you need to have like a higher payout to continue to serve this debt in a moment that ROE are very — are lower, right, because of all the issues in Colombian rates, on asset quality. So my question is, what should we expect on the dividends front and thinking also about capital?

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia: Two things. Number one, we can’t speculate about that because it’s a shareholder decision. However, what we have done in the past has been based on cash in to Aval based on cash equivalent to cash out based on how much dividends our banks can pay. Obviously, as you mentioned, we have to take into consideration the capacity of each one of the banks to pay dividends, growth expectations and also their expected solvency moving forward. So I know I haven’t been specific on what you were having, but those have been the guidance we’ve used in the past to make sure that the company is balanced and cash in, cash out.

Yuri Fernandes: And Diego, can you help something similar to what you did last year, I guess there was a year that we didn’t pay dividend and just issued shares, like would that be something for you to consider also?

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia: I think we are ahead of time to have that discussion, each decision is taken on annual basis based and juncture. The reason why that happened in the past had to do is the PHI spinoff. So it had special considerations.

Yuri Fernandes: And if I may, a second one on operating trends here on asset quality, like you have a guidance on cost of risk, right, the 2% you just mentioned. What is the curve for that? Like should we expect the third Q to be better on asset quality than this quarter? Because my concern here is that inflation is still very high in Colombia. So my concern is that maybe cost of risk is just higher, right, the economy is slowing down, although, growing a little bit. So what is our level of confidence that cost of risk could be 2% and not higher in the coming quarters?

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia: Let me walk you through the logic of our guidance. Basically, the way we think about it is we look into PDL formation and a 30 day horizon. We know that there is a percentage of that, that needs to roll into 90 day PDL formation, and that’s precisely the point where we get the highest cost of risk. There’s a few things that — even though it’s early to go home about that, but are positive signs. And at end of second quarter, beginning of fourth quarter, we’ve seen a change in the trend of PDL formation, particularly our personal installment loans and credit cards that have been accountable for most of the cost of risk. That looking at our own numbers, so just by — due to math, if you see the aforementioned falling in that horizon, you should expect three months out to 90 day PDL formation also coming down, therefore, cost of is coming down.