Greif, Inc. (NYSE:GEF) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Matt Leahy: And [indiscernible], I’ll just add to that. This is Matt. So when you just look globally at industrial production, [ISM] (ph) PMIs were peaking in May of 2021 and trending down almost since then. They’ve actually been trending negatively globally since September of 2022 in a contractionary period for over 12 months. Our global industrial business is levered to some of those trends, if not directly. So I think if you look for a turn or recovery in PMI or ISMs, that could also indicate we’re probably seeing a demand recovery as well.

Unidentified Analyst: Thanks a lot. And just about the cadence of pricing volume by quarter, maybe within each segment, it seems like within both, they have the toughest comp in 1Q and sequentially improves and maybe it’s flat year-over-year, sort of kind of what you built into your guidance. Am I thinking about this correctly?

Ole Rosgaard: Yeah, we didn’t really look at the price cost. I don’t, I’m not ready to answer that on a quarter by quarter basis. I didn’t go back and look at where we were on each, but I guess just off the top, things trended throughout the year, obviously with OCC going up in the paper business throughout the year and we got price cuts more, back half of the year. So, that would say that you’d be better at the end of the year than at the beginning. But then we’ve got our price increase announced that we are implementing on January 1st. So that would obviously help in the first, more in the second quarter than the first.

Larry Hilsheimer: And [indiscernible], the first quarter tends to be the lowest in our business cycle as well.

Unidentified Analyst: All right, just one last one for me. So the deals that you’ve already closed, what’s the rollover contribution to sales, EBITDA and free cashflow assumed in the guidance from that?

Larry Hilsheimer: I can give you, EBITDA is roughly $20 million in terms of the contributions to 2024. Generally these businesses collectively are running at a 60% free cash flow conversion. We haven’t guided to that, but I’m not sure what the CapEx needs are next year, but that’s directionally accurate in terms from an EBITDA perspective.

Unidentified Analyst: All right. Thank you for taking my question.

Operator: And one moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Roger Spitz of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Roger Spitz: Thank you. Good morning. First, what was IBC’s fiscal Q4 volume increase on a percentage basis? And would you have for steel, plastic, fiber and IBCs the full fiscal year 2024 volume changes on a percentage basis?

Ole Rosgaard: Hi, Roger, I can give you that the first one in Q4 was a contraction of 4.3% on IBCs.

Roger Spitz: Okay. I thought you said — okay, my fault. And you don’t have the full year to hand is what you’re saying through all four?

Ole Rosgaard: Full year is a contraction of 9.5%.

Roger Spitz: Okay. Why does small plastic packaging businesses have higher margins than your legacy large packaging? Isn’t small plastic packaging more fragmented and large packaging really only has maybe three producers with maybe 80% global market share? So a less fragmented business.

Ole Rosgaard: Yes, number one, it is a less consolidated business across the globe. There’s a lot of players. It’s also a more sophisticated product to produce. On small plastic and you can kind of split it up in three buckets. You have a commodity market, then you have the middle, a little bit commodity, a little bit premium, and then you have the premium market, which is really where we operate, where you have things like barrier technologies, you have special designs and that sort of thing.

Larry Hilsheimer: One thing to supplement Ole’s answer because Ole was answering on IBCs on a same-store basis without the impact of Centurion acquisition. So on Centurion, with Centurion in, our volumes on IBCs were up 2% and for ‘24 we would expect them to be up 12% year-over-year.

Roger Spitz: Got it. Thank you very much for your time.

Larry Hilsheimer: Thank you.

Operator: One moment for our next question. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Gabe Hajde of Wells Fargo. Your line’s open.

Gabe Hajde: Good morning, guys.

Ole Rosgaard: Hey, Gabe. I’m sure you’ve been called worse.

Gabe Hajde: I wanted to ask something, a little bit that’s been in the publications here recently about imported uncoated recycled boards. And just historically speaking, not been really a paper grade that’s been imported and I think for a variety of reasons, one of which is there are probably other paper grades that are higher price points that could be justified to be imported but I’m just curious if you all have seen this in the past, or if in fact you can confirm that it’s something that you’ve seen in the marketplace. And I’ll stop there.

Ole Rosgaard: Yeah, Gabe, it’s something that there’s always been some, it is really minor in the overall market. We’ve seen a little bit more, but it’s not substantial.