Gray Media, Inc. (GTN): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Gray Media, Inc. on Cundill Deep Value’s Substack by FRAGMENTS. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GTN. Gray Media, Inc.’s share was trading at $4.2900 as of January 29th. GTN’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.98 and 1.48 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Gray Media, Inc., a multimedia company, owns and/or operates television stations and digital assets in the United States and represents a deeply undervalued levered local-TV platform with three underappreciated strengths: political advertising cyclicality, resilient retransmission revenues, and monetizable hard assets. The company is set to benefit materially from the 2026 midterm election cycle, projected to be the most expensive in U.S. history with nearly $10.8 billion in political ad spend. GTN’s political segment already generated a record $497 million in 2024, positioning it for another outsized contribution in 2026.

Meanwhile, its retransmission fees provide stable cash flow during non-political years, cushioning cyclicality and supporting debt service. The company also owns significant tangible assets, including the 135-acre Assembly Atlanta studio complex and 43-acre campus anchored by NBCUniversal, conservatively valued at $0.9 billion ($9.28 per share). Complementing this are tower and real estate assets, with recent monetizations yielding $35 million while preserving ownership and control.

Management has actively de-risked the balance sheet, extending maturities through strategic refinancing, including a new $775 million first-lien due 2033, $900 million second-lien due 2032, and an upsized $750 million revolver maturing in 2028—effectively eliminating near-term refinancing pressure. Institutional investors like Miller Value Partners and Capital Management Corp have built sizable positions, reflecting growing confidence in GTN’s turnaround and asset value realization.

With the next major election cycle approaching, ample liquidity, and optional asset monetization pathways, GTN offers a compelling risk/reward setup. The base case fair value is estimated around $17 per share, with a bull scenario of $37 and asset-backed downside protection near $5–7, creating asymmetric upside into 2026.

Previously we covered a bearish thesis on Gray Television, Inc. (GTN) by Tyler Moody in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s excessive leverage, cyclical dependence, and structural industry decline. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 8.52% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as GTN’s debt burden remains high. FRAGMENTS shares a contrarian but emphasizes undervaluation, political ad tailwinds, and asset monetization potential into 2026.

Gray Media, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 26 hedge fund portfolios held GTN at the end of the second quarter which was 28 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GTN as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GTN and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.