GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE:EAF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jeremy Halford: Yes. And so then the other thing that, I guess, I would say is that the first month of this year is starting to give us some reasons for optimism. We’re particularly seeing that on things like HRC pricing and some of the restarts, some of the recent increases in operating rates that we’ve been seeing in multiple different regions. And so while still meaningfully depressed from where we were a year ago, we’re definitely seeing some things that are giving us a degree of confidence that the market is coming back.

Arun Viswanathan: Okay. And then just lastly, so given that comment, do you expect both needle coke and electrode prices to rise through the year? And the reason I ask is because you noted that the demand environment, like again, there’s some potential green shoots and then you noted the 17% increase, I think, in cost per ton for the year. And so would that — or 17% to 22%, would that be in line with kind of how — so would the costs evolve with how the pricing evolves? Or what kind of informs some of your cost commentary? And similarly, if you could just elaborate on your thoughts on how pricing for these — for electrodes and needle coke could play out.

Marcel Kessler: So my thoughts here on pricing Arun, it’s quite difficult to really forecast short-term pricing both for graphite electrodes and needle coke. I think what’s very important, and you’re aware of that, right, that there is a strong long-term link between the right pricing of needle coke and spot prices for graphite electrode. And the long-term average spread between these two is of the order of $3,800 to $3,900. So that link has actually held very strongly over probably a 20-year plus period. So if you look at the current spot prices around $6,000, the current needle coke pricing, at least at the high end of about $2,500. We are at the spread of about $3,500 between the two. So not completely out of line between the two.

But there might be a bit of upward movement that’s possible here if you’re wanting to get back to the long-term average. I think longer-term, the key message here on pricing is really we expect the pricing for needle coke to go up as demand for that important raw material accelerates, both for graphite electrodes as well as for battery applications. And as such, we should also expect the price for graphite electrodes to go up if that spread holds into the future. And I think most importantly, from my perspective here, given that we are the only large-scale producer of gratified electrodes outside of China that is integrated into that raw material, it really is an advantage vis-a-vis our competition over time.

Arun Viswanathan: Okay. Thanks. I’ll turn it over.

Operator: Thank you. Next question is a follow-up from David Gagliano at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

David Gagliano: Hi, thanks for taking my call. I just had a quick question on the 2024 LTAs and the changes there in the revenues expected. The volumes didn’t change, but the expected revenues went down. Can you just talk through what happened there?

Timothy Flanagan: Yes. So as we note in there, the contractual volumes haven’t changed and the expected revenue from those contractual volumes haven’t changed. But certainly, in that estimate, there’s always an assumption around certain customer contracts and associated termination penalties or termination revenue as a result from those contracts. So without getting into the specifics of each of those individuals, our estimate of how much of those termination penalties we collect out in the out years of those contracts has come down. So that’s what’s driving that kind of weighted average volume or weighted average cost reduction in the 2024 time frame.