Grab Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:GRAB) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: The next question comes from Ranjan Sharma of JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Ranjan Sharma: Hi. Good evening, and thank you for the presentation. Two questions from my side. Firstly, in the buybacks there’s a reference to privately negotiated transactions. If you can help us understand what could be — how would you determine the reference share price for such transactions? The second question is on your overall cost base. Can you share some color like what percentage of your costs are coming in like U.S. dollars and Singapore dollars? Thank you.

Peter Oey: Ranjan on the buyback, look it’s hard for us to quantify. Buybacks as you know is influenced and led by the market dynamics at the end of the day. And the mandate that the Board has given us has given full flexibility in just how we deploy those capital. We’ll see how the market from a dynamic perspective and will enter into the markets, whether it’s block trades, whether it’s trades that we do in the open market that’s all influenced by the price of the market itself. So it’s hard for us to say because we can’t control the market. What I can say is that we’ll be efficient in how we use that cash for those buybacks for the highest return for our shareholders. On your second question around costs in USD and SGD. We’re a USD denominated business.

What we do with our cash predominantly will be fairly concentrated in USD. We naturally hedge our business itself. We’re a diversified portfolio when it comes to countries as you know. But we make sure that from an FX perspective, we’re not exposed and where we will we will heavily concentrate our balance sheet on USD.

Operator: Our next question comes from Alicia Yap of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Alicia Yap: Hi. Thank you. Good evening management. Thanks for taking my question. I have very quick two questions. First is, just wondering how much of the FX fluctuation that you have baked into your 2024 revenues and EBITDA guidance? And then second on follow-up on your comments about the inorganic versus the organic growth. Just wondering in what type of situations or what kind of synergies that you are looking for that will trigger you to think about the inorganic opportunity potentially, if it arises? Thank you.

Peter Oey: Hi, Alicia. Let me take those two questions. In the FX part of your question, look we’ve obviously built in buffer in the movement in FX. We have to be prudent. We can’t read in terms of what the forward FX rates will be. We have built in some conservatism in our foreign exchange, in our model and that’s being appropriate. We don’t know where the rates will be in terms of the next 12 months. In terms of inorganic versus organic growth Alex mentioned this a couple of times that we have a very high hurdle rate when it comes to inorganic opportunities. We are very, very focused in making sure that organic growth takes the most highest priority for us and we are investing in those products Alicia to make sure that to drive this engagement, to drive the user base, to drive growth especially because that’s really what’s going to deepen our competitive moat in the business today.

Operator: The next question is from Jiong Shao of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Jiong Shao: My questions. I think, Peter you mentioned a couple of times about the reacceleration in growth in 2025 and beyond. So usually the law of large numbers is growth rate tend to decelerate, moderate as you get bigger. But I was hoping you can elaborate a bit more on why the growth rate in 2025 and beyond will be higher than 2024 other than the advertising and fintech will contribute more. My second question is about travelers. I think Alex mentioned a couple of times as well that the travelers now only back to 70% of pre-COVID and some of the new stats we have seen from Chinese New Year for travelers seem pretty good. So I was wondering if you can talk about sort of how big is that Chinese travelers, is that revenue contribution to your Mobility business? Any color or numbers you can share the trends you have seen during this holiday period a couple of weeks ago would be helpful. Thank you.

Anthony Tan: Hey, Jiong thanks so much for the question. I’ll talk about growth and reacceleration of growth and why 2025 and how we are thinking about the confidence of it. We are actually very confident as a team our ability to execute to drive revenue growth, especially, in the mid-term. Hence, we set out these stretch goals across not just for 2024, but beyond. If you just look at our past history in 2022 and 2023 we showed some internal targets; for example our cost to serve. We had very broad numbers that many people thought we couldn’t achieve. But we’ve shown now, we’re actually the most efficient our cost to serve platform in the region by orders of magnitude, and that’s what we are going to keep demonstrating. We said what we’re going to do and then we did it.

We said that the Mobility GMV will exit 2023 above pre-COVID and we did that as we drove focus and we targeted [Technical Difficulty] and the affordability segment and that grew very well. We said, hey, Deliveries will come back into growth — into GMV growth and we saw that with Q4 growing at 13% year-on-year and sequential growth for three quarters, because we focused on GrabUnlimited. We focused on Saver and differentiation of pricing. And then, we said we’re going to deliver on EBITDA and we did actually way ahead of time. Now, what we are saying now is we are incubating growth with a lot of initiatives. One you talked about it, advertising. We still see tremendous headroom there. We’ve seen increase in penetration across, whether it’s the big BD clients, whether it’s small long tail, we’ve seen and yet penetration compared to other markets is still very low.

So we see a lot of headroom there. And we’ve seen how the ROAS or the return on advertised sales for them continues to provide even greater earning opportunities for all our merchant partners. The second, what Alex talked about was banking, for example. We are very excited, because we see revenue growth as our loan book scales. We saw that with GrabFin. We’re very happy with our GFin team as they drove costs [Technical Difficulty] continue to grow with loan growth. Now with banks, as we are very conscious on cost at the same time we believe deposits and loans will continue to be growing strongly. With all that said, we also have shared or Peter has actually shared that a Deliveries margin upside of somewhere between 100 bps to 200 bps will continue to take place over the longer term as we invest more into tech and product.

All that, are just examples that we’ll continue to reinforce reacceleration of revenue growth even beyond 2024.

Alex Hungate: Thanks for your question, Jiong. Yes, let me pick up the question about Chinese travelers. In fact, Chinese travelers are more significant now than they were before COVID. But I think that could be largely driven by the efforts that we put into targeting them, because we’ve done the integration with WeChat, Ali, trip.com. We’ve got the Chinese translation as well in-app translation. So, I think our top of mind awareness with Chinese travelers has increased and therefore, we’re seeing that impact in our numbers. Having said that, I just happened to meet with the Asia head of a very large global hotel chain, and he was saying that they’re seeing much more domestic Chinese travel at this point than they saw pre-COVID as a proportion and less international.

So, I think there’s still upside as the China economy starts to regrow again and the Chinese consumers start to travel internationally. But right now, I think they’re disproportionately traveling domestically based on some of the feedback we have from our partners.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes Grab’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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