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Goldman Doesn’t Think Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ) Has Bottomed Yet

Shares of PC giant Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) were under heavy pressure today, down by as much as 6%, following an analyst downgrade from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS). Analyst Bill Shope is cutting his estimates on the broader PC sector, with unit shipments expected to come in weak during the first quarter.


After shares bottomed in November, Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) has proceeded to more than double over the past six months as investors bet that the worst is behind HP. Shope, on the other hand, does not believe that HP is out of the woods yet, as the company’s turnaround story is still very much a work in progress.

The analyst not only points to deteriorating unit shipment volumes but also to continued pricing pressure that most PC OEMs face as they aggressively compete against each other. Most PC vendors are also expanding into tablet form factors, which generally carry lower prices, further adding downward pressure.

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) just reentered the consumer tablet fray with its Slate 7, which runs Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android. While that low-end offering carries just a $169 price point, it’s certainly not positioned as a laptop replacement and is unlikely to cannibalize Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ)’s PC sales. That’s not to say that other tablets won’t cannibalize PCs in general, though, with Shope expecting 40% cannibalization over the next two years.

Shope downgraded Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) from neutral to sell and assigned the company a $16 price target. He notes that CEO Meg Whitman is embarking on a multiyear turnaround effort, but the rest of Wall Street is modeling for higher chances of success on the assumption that the business has already bottomed out.

That could lead to downward revisions in Street estimates in the next few quarters, which can be a painful process in itself. Even if HP benefits from its recent restructuring initiatives, the analyst sees those gains being offset by incremental weakness in the company’s core businesses.

HP may not have bottomed just yet.

The article Goldman Doesn’t Think Hewlett-Packard Has Bottomed Yet originally appeared on and is written by Evan Niu, CFA.

Fool contributor Evan Niu, CFA, has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends and owns shares of Google. It also recommends Goldman Sachs.

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