Global-e Online Ltd. (NASDAQ:GLBE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Samad Samana: Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Maybe first just for on what’s embedded in the guidance around the net dollar retention, 127 [ph] was a strong year for 2023. Just as I think about the low 30s growth guidance, what are you thinking net dollar retention will look like in 2024?

Amir Schlachet: So we think that net dollar retention in 2024 will be slightly lower compared to 2023. As we mentioned, we do see sort of uncertainty around macro conditions. Consumer sentiment is very volatile. And on top of that, also Borderfree will come in and sort of weigh a bit on our NDR. So we do expect it to be slightly lower than what we have seen in 2023.

Samad Samana: Understood. And then maybe just on Shopify Markets Pro, this might be more for Amir or Nir, but what are you seeing as far as in the initial customers that are using it? Now it’s been, let’s call it four or five months, maybe average annual GMV of the typical Shopify Market Pro merchant that you’re seeing? And then related to Ofer, should we think about that being like a $200 or $300 million GMV contribution in 2024? Just anything that we can kind of peg against.

Nir Debbi: Hi, Samar. It’s Nir. Thanks for the questions. We have seen initial positive signs for adoption post S&P general availability in the U.S. Coupled with continued development of the solution capabilities that is still ongoing, we expect the adoption rate to grow gradually throughout the year. At this stage, we don’t guide specifically for Shopify Markets Pro. However, I don’t think your numbers generally are far out.

Samad Samana: Great. Thanks again and talk soon.

Nir Debbi: Thanks Samad.

Operator: Our next question comes from Andrew Bauch from Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Andrew Bauch: Hey, thanks for taking the question. I just want to get a sense of your expectations for the gross margins as we progress through 2024, I mean, with the fulfillment dynamics in the fourth quarter. It seems reasonable that gross profit could outpace revenue. So any thoughts around that would be helpful.

Amir Schlachet: So we are very, very pleased with our gross margin improvement over time as we surpassed our 40% target earlier than we expected. And moving forward, we expect relatively stable gross margins as we continue to prioritize growth over profitability. However, we do see operational leverage potential that will enable us to improve our adjusted EBITDA margins.

Andrew Bauch: Got it. Thanks. And then just looking back at the fourth quarter, I mean, you had a really strong Black Friday, Cyber Monday press release of 53% versus the 44% for the full quarter. So maybe you just give us a sense of what was about your platform that drove that outside strength and maybe a better sense of the shape of trends throughout the quarter so we can understand it.

Amir Schlachet: Sure. So as you mentioned, we did experience a strong quarter generally and a very strong big trading season with the highest growth around Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend. Some of it may be attributed to consumers’ preference to discount shopping. So this may had an impact. And I think that on top of that, there was very strong results for some of our large merchants, so that also contributed for them first, but for us, it’s a derivative as well.

Andrew Bauch: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Kunal Madhukar from UBS. Please proceed.

Kunal Madhukar: Hi. Thank you for taking the questions. One on the revenue guide. So, your revenue guide for 1Q implies a take rate decline. But then when we look at the full year guide for 2024 that kind of suggests that the take rate should improve in the back half. So how much of the improvement in the take rate are you baking in assumptions for growth from Shopify Markets Pro, which is probably at a higher take rate?

Amir Schlachet: Thank you, Kunal, for the question. I think the answer, the main part of the answer lies actually in 2023, because we started 2023 with a much higher fulfillment take rate. The overall take rate in Q1 last year was 16.7%. And over the year, as the share of multi-local and mainly our large multi-local merchants grew, because we have launched a few and expanded our activities with others, we’ve seen a reduction in overall take rate, mainly, not mainly, just out of the fulfillment take rate. And basically, as we mentioned in the previous quarter, we expect that to balance next year. So we expect to see a much more balanced year. We expect it to stabilize at around the overall take rate, around 16%, as we do not expect the share of those merchants to grow significantly, because the merchants that we see currently in our pipeline, the large ones, are not multi-local merchants. So we expect to strike a balance.

Kunal Madhukar: Thank you. And then, you mentioned weakness in February. Can you talk about trends by maybe vertical and geography, like you did last time, in terms of what’s luxury doing versus what’s apparel doing? And then last time, you talked about weakness in Europe, inbound. So can you talk a bit about that, please?

Nir Debbi: Yes, thank you for your question. It’s Nir. I would say that in February, we don’t see a specific vertical that is down. However, on geographies, we do see slowdowns around different parts of the world. Our inbound into the U.S. has slowed down a bit. Same store sales not growing as fast as they did in January or previous year. Same goes into the U.K. that officially went into recession just earlier this year. And same, we’ve seen some slowness in APAC. So it’s kind of a global slowdown that we see. It’s not specific to a certain territorial vertical.

Kunal Madhukar: Got it. Thank you so much.

Operator: Our next question comes from Scott Berg from Needham & Company. Please proceed.