Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. on Multibagger Radar’s Substack by Joshua Nielsen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GLBE. Global-E Online Ltd.’s share was trading at $37.89 as of January 28th. GLBE’s trailing and forward P/E were 947.25 and 39.37 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Global-e (GLBE) is emerging as a critical infrastructure provider for cross-border e-commerce, simplifying the complex backend processes that make or break international sales. Unlike traditional merchants or platforms, Global-e focuses on localized pricing, payments, VAT/duties, logistics, and returns, offering a single integration that enables seamless sales into over 200 destinations. The company’s partnership with Shopify, which holds ~9.7% voting power and has renewed a multi-year commercial deal in May 2025, creates a structural distribution funnel, ensuring a steady flow of ambitious merchants into Global-e’s ecosystem.

Financially, Global-e generated $569.9 million in revenue in 2023, growing 39% year-over-year, and $752.8 million in 2024, up 32%, with GMV reaching $4.86 billion, a 37% increase. Free cash flow was $167.1 million in 2024, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $140.8 million (18.7%), and Q4 2024 marked GAAP profitability of $1.5 million, signaling an inflection point. Looking ahead, guidance for 2025 projects $917–967 million in revenue with adjusted EBITDA of $179–199 million, alongside full-year GAAP profitability.

Global-e benefits from high switching costs due to the complexity of cross-border e-commerce, and its market penetration remains low relative to a massive total addressable market. Catalysts include Shopify-driven merchant growth, geographic expansion in APAC and LATAM, new verticals, and operating leverage pushing adjusted EBITDA margins above 20%.

While the stock carries high multiples reflective of its quality, sustained 25–30% CAGR and margin expansion could justify a 2–3x return over 3–5 years, with potential for 5–10x if Global-e becomes the default infrastructure for cross-border commerce. The combination of structural distribution, market scale, and demonstrated inflection in profitability makes GLBE a compelling long-term compounder with multiple upside catalysts.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) by Steve Wagner in February 2025, which highlighted Q4 2024 record performance, GAAP profitability, and 37% GMV growth. GLBE’s stock has depreciated by approximately 13.43% since due to cautious 2025 guidance. Joshua Nielsen shares a similar view but emphasizes its cross-border e-commerce infrastructure role and Shopify distribution funnel.

Global-E Online Ltd. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held GLBE at the end of the third quarter which was 35 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GLBE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GLBE and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.