Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE): A Bull Case Theory

 We came across a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. on Multibagger Radar’s Substack by Joshua. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GLBE. Global-E Online Ltd.’s share was trading at $36.88 as of September 23rd. GLBE’s forward P/E was 37.59  according to Yahoo Finance.

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Global-e Online Ltd. (GLBE) has established itself as the infrastructure layer powering cross-border e-commerce by managing the complex but essential elements—localized pricing, payments, duties, taxes, logistics, and returns. This “borderless Shopify” approach is reinforced by its strategic relationship with Shopify, which holds ~9.7% voting power and renewed its multi-year commercial partnership in May 2025.

This funnel of merchants into Global-e creates structural distribution advantages that are difficult for competitors to replicate. The company delivered strong performance in 2024 with $752.8 million in revenue (+32% YoY), $4.86 billion in GMV (+37% YoY), and $167.1 million in free cash flow, achieving positive GAAP net income in Q4 2024. Guidance for 2025 targets $917–967 million in revenue and $179–199 million in adjusted EBITDA, with management expecting full-year GAAP profitability for the first time.

Global-e’s moat lies in simplifying cross-border commerce, where VAT, currencies, fraud, and logistics pose significant barriers. Once embedded, switching costs are high, supporting sticky growth. With cross-border e-commerce growing double digits globally, Global-e remains at low penetration relative to its total addressable market, offering a long runway for expansion into APAC and LATAM. Operating leverage is becoming evident, with adjusted EBITDA margins surpassing 20% in Q4 2024 and targeted for 2025.

While the stock trades at a premium multiple, sustained 25–30% CAGR with margin expansion could lead to meaningful rerating toward infrastructure-like valuations, supporting a 2–3x upside over 3–5 years, with longer-term optionality of 5–10x if Global-e becomes the default global standard for cross-border e-commerce.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s scalable cross-border e-commerce infrastructure, strong Q1 2025 growth, and strategic Shopify partnership. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 11.4% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as GLBE continues expanding globally. Joshua shares a similar thesis but emphasizes GLBE’s structural distribution advantages and long-term rerating potential.

Global-E Online Ltd. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held GLBE at the end of the second quarter which was 32 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GLBE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GLBE and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.