Global Blue Group Holding AG (GB): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Global Blue Group Holding AG on Iceman Capital’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GB. Global Blue Group Holding AG’s share was trading at $7.36 as of July 14^th. GB’s trailing P/E was 17.98 according to Yahoo Finance.

Global Blue (GB) is the dominant global player in VAT tax refunds, commanding over 70% market share in the Tax-Free Shopping (TFS) space—nearly three times the size of its nearest competitor. TFS generates 76% of GB’s revenue, where GB captures ~2.5% of gross transaction value by partnering with merchants to offer seamless VAT refund processing.

The firm has digitized nearly the entire refund experience, increasing efficiencies and improving key success metrics like issue and refund ratios. These improvements have contributed to market share gains, particularly in countries like Spain. GB’s Payments segment accounts for 18% of revenue, offering acquiring, dynamic currency conversion (DCC), and multi-currency gateways, earning revenue from FX spreads and transaction fees, often layered on top of TFS economics.

Its Post-Purchase Solutions (~6% of revenue) have been strengthened via acquisitions like ZigZag (returns logistics), Yocuda (digital receipts and CRM), and ShipUp (order tracking), creating further stickiness and expanding its merchant offerings. GB’s competitive moat is built on switching costs, merchant contracts, digitized infrastructure, and data scale—capturing 50 data points per transaction.

Its positioning in the luxury and travel markets offers pricing resilience and growth, supported by long-term sector CAGRs of 5%+. With 41 million transactions averaging €587 in FY2025, GB’s exposure is skewed to premium shoppers. Its merger with Shift4 (FOUR) adds international capabilities, merchant overlap, and cross-sell potential, with expected $80M in revenue and $70M in EBITDA synergies. At a deal price of $2.5B (13.3x TTM EV/EBITDA), the transaction appears attractively valued and strategically sound.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) by Iceman Capital in June 2025, which highlighted the company’s acquisition of Global Blue as a strategic move into high-margin international markets. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 9.38% since our coverage. Iceman Capital, in this thesis, conducts a deep dive into the acquiree Global Blue (GB), emphasizing its scale, digitized moat, and luxury travel exposure. Together, they present compelling investment opportunities in the FinTech segment .

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Disclosure: None.