Genmab A/S (GMAB): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Genmab A/S on Gabriel Koh’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GMAB. Genmab A/S’s share was trading at $33.87 as of January 13th. GMAB’s trailing and forward P/E were 14.83 and 12.58, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Genmab is a leading biotechnology company focused on antibody therapeutics for cancer and serious diseases, operating a royalty driven, asset light business model that delivers high margin, high quality earnings. Alongside Regeneron, it ranks as a top two player in antibody therapeutics, but offers a more attractive risk reward profile by partnering with large pharmaceutical companies rather than fully funding development internally.

Genmab’s core economic moat is built on four proprietary antibody platforms that enable rapid and precise drug development, which have already produced patented, globally approved therapies such as Darzalex, Kesimpta, and EPKINLY. The business is overwhelmingly driven by recurring royalties, which account for 80.6% of revenue from partner drug sales, while product sales from EPKINLY contribute 10.1% and milestone payments represent 9.3%. This revenue mix results in low COGS of 4.6%, strong EBITDA margins, and robust free cash flow generation.

Strategically, Genmab reinvests heavily in innovation, with R&D representing 44.9% of costs, while SG&A remains disciplined at 17.6%. This financial strength allows the company to pursue bolt on M&A to acquire proprietary antibody technologies and near commercial assets, reinforcing its pipeline and extending its competitive advantage. Compared with peers, Genmab combines defensible intellectual property, diversified revenue streams, and reduced development risk through big pharma partnerships, while still retaining meaningful long term economics.

Despite these strengths, the market values Genmab at a similar EV to revenue multiple as Regeneron, even though Genmab is expected to grow revenues at approximately 15% annually from 2025 onward. On this basis, valuation implies a 3 year upside of 42.1% and a 5 year upside of 82.5%. Additional catalysts include accelerated regulatory pathways for key pipeline assets and upcoming late stage trial readouts with the potential to generate over USD 1 billion in annual peak sales. While patent expiries and clinical execution risks remain, these are mitigated by a deepening pipeline and disciplined capital allocation, making Genmab a compelling long term investment opportunity.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Genmab A/S (GMAB) by Oliver | MMMT Wealth in March 2025, which highlighted the partnership driven model, discounted valuation, and pipeline optionality tied to Phase III assets. GMAB’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 67% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out as valuation and pipeline quality were recognized. Gabriel Koh shares a similar thesis but emphasizes the royalty driven asset light model and platform moat.

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Disclosure: None.