Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jed Kelly: Hi, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just two, if I may. Want to go into the slide, it looks like the data right costs, I think are like $195 million. It looks like they’re growing. I don’t know. Maybe I know you will have it, but maybe like 30%. So slightly faster than revenue. Can you talk about what’s going on? And then bigger question for you, Mark. We’re seeing a lot of technology innovation around streaming, particularly with like the Apple headset, YouTube TV, where does Genius and your technology fit and what’s going on in the streaming landscape? Thanks.

Nick Taylor: Hi, Jed, I’ll take the first one. I’ll pass the it back to Mark to take the second part. So, look, I guess the first thing to say, Jed, is, look, we’re delighted with the drop-through that we’ve experienced in 2023. I think it’s running roundabout 53%. And you can see on a cash basis, you’ve heard us talk about operating leverage a lot, and you can see that that’s really motoring over the course of the last 36 months. When you look at ’23 to ’24, and I’ll park right for a second, but I’ll come back to that. You can see that the cost base remains pretty flat year-on-year. I think it’s something like $208 million to $210 million. So, again, that operating leverage is coming through the business clearly. And to be clear, Jed, that’s something that should continue to be the case beyond 2024 as well.

Now, specifically on rights, let’s remember, I guess, first of all, rights are fixed and we have great visibility. But I guess, inevitably, they’re not linear. There is a – they’re sometimes lumpy over a rights cycle. And you’re right, there’s a slightly higher step-up in rights from ’23 to ’24 than there was in ’22 to ’23. Hence why we’re estimating a drop-through in our guide at roundabout 33%. But to be clear, Jed, that’s still delivering an EBITDA margin expansion in ’24 to roundabout 16%. They will be lumpy. I think a sustainable position, probably beyond 2025, is probably somewhere between the drop-throughs of ’23 and where we’re estimating for ’24. And that EBITDA margin expansion we’ll expect to see continue beyond ’24.

Mark Locke: Hi, Jed, it’s Mark. In terms of your second question, I mean, look, this is super-exciting, some of these developments that are coming through, and clearly it’s the future. It’s where we’ve really been investing sort of ahead of the curve over the years. And a lot of the work that we’ve done with Second Spectrum positions us really well. This is part of a wider digitization of the sports ecosystem, which again, is exactly where we play. It brings in our media business very strongly and gives us really further outputs for sports and another way for the fans to engage. There’s some stuff that you should probably be thinking about. The content rights are still a big part of what’s required to get this stuff. So there’s still a fair bit of work to be done in terms of the way that I think Apple are going to be displaying sports.

And I caution you a little bit on getting too excited about sort of revenue flow-throughs at this stage. This is really about positioning ourselves well, having a partnership with people like Apple, and you know what we’re doing with the Apple Sports app as well, where we’re providing them with a lot of the data. I think it puts us in a strong position for when this stuff becomes more mainstream, when the data rights market and the sort of distribution of this becomes a bit more widely featured.

Jed Kelly: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Bender from Citizens JMP. Please go ahead.

Jordan Bender: Good morning, everyone. I want to follow up on Jed’s question. So the incremental margins dropping from 53% into the mid-30s for ’24, is that all related to the rights increase, or is there any more investment in the business that you guys are kind of stepping back, investing in the business outside of those rights costs in ’24?

Nick Taylor: Yes. Hi, Jordan. I think we gave a slide specifically in the deck on a cash basis, looking at the cost base. And if you look at that year-on-year, you can see, I think, if you include everything outside of rights, I think our cost base goes from $208 million to $210 million year-on-year. And indeed it’s broadly in line with – if you want to look – go back to 2022 as well. So you’ve got very little incremental cost in the business, driving those additional revenues. As I say, the rights position is driving that. We’re going from, I think, 154 to the 190-odd that we’ve guided to. And that’s just, as I say, it’s a function really that the rights aren’t linear, there are lumpy years. It was a less bigger jump from ’22 to ’23, it’s a slightly bigger jump from ’23 to ’24. And we’ll be sure to guide when we get beyond 2024 and any years that are either slightly more, slightly less than the mean.

Jordan Bender: Understood. And then in-play – in your slide it says in-play represented over 20% of your GGR, which tying that back to the outlook or the guidance that you gave at your Investor Day back in ’22, would represent a significant improvement over those projected levels. I know there’s no crystal ball, but is it fair to assume that the shift in in-play is accelerating faster, just driven by the product rollout? And I guess the second part of that question to Mark, you kind of alluded to it in the prepared remarks, does that help with the ongoing price negotiations?

Mark Locke: Sure. Look, I think I’m cautiously optimistic about this and we are seeing good growth. Again, if you look at the sort of BetVision numbers and the proportion of in-play betting, it’s really being product-driven. And I think that’s a really good thing for us and puts us in a really strong place. I think the other thing that’s worth just having in your mind when you’re considering these things is the improvement in margin as well. You’ve obviously – one of the things we’ve always been very focused on and very excited about with in-play is the fact that you generate materially better margin, or you should do anyway, and we’re seeing that come through as well. So again, I talk a lot about this compounding effect of the shift to in-play, the increase in margin, and again, the addition of quite a new product like BetVision, all really sort of pushing things in our favor.