General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Jeffrey Harmening: Yes, I’ll start with. Let me start in a little bit different place and I’ll work my way back maybe to your question. I would say one of the shifts we’ve seen since the beginning of the pandemic is more food consumption at home. And so food consumption at home is a couple points higher than it was going into the pandemic. So roughly about 86% of food is served at home. And the reason for that is because food served at home is such a great value. And it’s about 4 times less expensive to eat at home than it is to eat out at a restaurant on average. And so as Americans have felt the challenges with inflation, part of the way they deal with value is that they eat food at home rather than out. And obviously, we were a great source of value when it comes to that.

That’s actually probably one of the biggest shifts. Interestingly, private label shares are about the same now as where they were before the pandemic. In the categories that we’re in, private label is about 10% of the category. In fact, they’re down 10 basis points from when the pandemic began. And overall, food and beverage is about 19 points. And so we haven’t actually seen a big shift when it comes to value there. When it comes to specific categories, one of the things I’m most pleased with our performance over the last few years is our ability to hold our growth share in half our categories over that time. And so that’s so it’s broad-based. And, you know, we’ve seen some big gains in our business, like Pillsbury, refrigerated dough, which has done quite well and, and meals and baking over time.

The same with fruit snacks. Both of those businesses are up 60% over the last few years. And we’ve consistently gained market share in those businesses. Obviously we haven’t in Pillsbury this year, because private labels getting back on shelf, but over the course of time. So we feel really good about that. We’ve had some struggles in bars as you well know. But I can say one of the things I’m pleased with as we look at our business now, Nature Valley is back to growing share. And it was even before one of our competitors had a big recall. So it’s not a recall induced kind of activity. We’ve had some good new product innovation in Nature Valley. Our marketing is working in Nature Valley. I think we shared some of that at CAGNY. And so that’s one category where we had struggled where we feel like we’re getting a little bit of momentum.

And then, you know, on yogurt too, it’s an area where we have struggled as well, but we, you know, we have done well. We’ve got yogurt protein out there right now, which is off to a nice start. And so, but broadly speaking, I would say we haven’t seen huge changes category by category in consumption.

Rob Dickerson: All right, fair enough. And then just quickly, you called out in the prepared remarks, just a little bit of pressure, maybe from the consumer in China and also Brazil. And you just kind of give us the quick kind of stay of the union, what you’re seeing in both countries. That’s all. Thank you so much.

Jeffrey Harmening: Yes, sure. In — you know, in China, the biggest factor in our — we did say that the biggest factor in our China business, I think it’s important to note, is in our Wanchai Ferry frozen dumplings where a year ago, Chinese consumers were kind of on lockdown. And so there was a lot of at-home consumption. So we’re lapping that. And so the comparisons are very, very difficult. And that’s the biggest driver of our challenges in China, if you will. The other driver, though, is that we have had the store traffic in China is down a little bit from where it had been before. And I think that’s probably a function of the Chinese consumer feeling the pinch of an economy that has slowed down over the past year. And so, but the bigger driver is actually the Wanchai Ferry dumplings.

And in Brazil, it’s kind of similar to the U.S. for the point now we’re lapping pricing from a year ago and our hope is we start to see the Brazilian — our Brazilian business start to stabilize here over the coming quarter or two. That’s been the big challenge. They’ve seen huge commodity price increases in Brazil. And so our input costs have gone up quite a bit in Brazil. And we’re lapping those now in Brazil, kins of, as we are here in the U.S. And my hope is that as we head into our fourth quarter that we start to see our comparisons, kind of, ease a little bit.

Rob Dickerson: All right, super. Thank you so much.

Operator: We’ll move next to Robert Moskow at TD Cowen.

Jacob Aiken-Phillips: Good morning, everyone. This is Jacob Aiken-Phillips on for Rob. Two quick ones, so I understand the trade timing 3% impact this year in 4Q. But last 4Q, you talked a lot about inventory reduction headwinds, and you said about 3% then. So did you ship ahead in 3Q? Or is there some other factors that we’re missing?

Jeffrey Harmening: Yes, in the — let me answer that to the best of my ability. But if I didn’t get the question exactly right, ask it again and that I’m not trying to avoid it. I would say in the third quarter, we had built inventory a year ago. And this year was pretty benign, I would say. Our — if you look at our Nielsen data in North America retail, you see a 2 point difference. Some of that is due to the fact of unmeasured channels, we’re growing faster than measured channels and only the balance of it is inventory growth. So our inventory is in a good position as we head out of the third quarter. And as we look at the fourth quarter, it’s tough to say what’s going to happen. You’re right, last year, we blood inventory, several points worth of inventory in the fourth quarter last year.