We came across a bullish thesis on Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. on Danny’s Substack by Danny Green. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on YMM. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.’s share was trading at $9.61 as of February 18th. YMM’s trailing and forward P/E were 17.25 and 19.49 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Full Truck Alliance (YMM) operates at the intersection of secular digital adoption and cyclical freight demand in China, offering a compelling growth story tempered by macro sensitivity. China’s freight logistics market is massive and fragmented, with a long runway for digital penetration, evidenced by a ~22% YoY increase in fulfilled orders in Q3 2025 and supportive government policies. YMM’s revenue growth remains solid, with net revenues up ~19% in Q1, ~17% in Q2, and ~10.8% in Q3 2025, while higher-value transaction service revenue grew ~39% YoY in Q3, reflecting improved monetization.
Active engagement metrics, including shippers and truckers using the platform, continue to rise, reinforcing network effects and platform utility. The company benefits from a secular shift from offline freight matching to digital platforms, but freight volumes remain tied to broader economic activity, leaving growth sensitive to industrial output, economic slowdowns, and pricing pressures. YMM’s platform quality is strong, with rising transaction service share, sizeable cash reserves (~RMB 31.1B), and a defensible, though not absolute, network effect.
Management has historically balanced growth with shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, but future allocation decisions—especially around AI, technology investment, and expansion—will be key. Risks include earnings volatility, freight downturns, competitive pressure, and regulatory or geopolitical exposure as a U.S.-listed Chinese company.
Catalysts for upside include continued acceleration of high-margin transaction revenues, rising platform engagement, and potential increased liquidity through a Hong Kong listing. Valuation is reasonable for exposure to secular digital adoption but must account for moderating growth and macro/regulatory sensitivities. For investors, YMM is suitable as a core long-term position (~1–3%) or growth tilt (~3–5%), with risk-managed sizing and careful monitoring of revenue trends, margins, and regulatory developments.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on GXO Logistics, Inc. GXO by Busy Investor Stock Reports in February 2025, which highlighted strong revenue growth, operational efficiency gains through AI, and expanding customer relationships across key markets. GXO’s stock price has appreciated by 66.64% since our coverage. Danny Green shares a similar view but emphasizes China’s freight logistics market, platform-driven network effects, and the growth potential of digital adoption in a cyclical macro environment.
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 30 hedge fund portfolios held YMM at the end of the third quarter which was 35 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of YMM as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than YMM and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
