FTC Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FTCI) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Donovan Schafer : Hey guys thanks for taking the questions. So I’m going to kind of follow-up on Phil’s question here and try, and I, I know you guys probably don’t want to get too specific on some of these dynamics that, that help working around the Uyghur, the UFLPA, but I’m curious, if we can talk maybe in terms of like, broader trends or kind of, minority majority of, of sort of mix. So if I, if I think about the, maybe call like three vectors that give you the flexibility to kind of work around the, the UFLPA. And so I think of those three, three vectors as first, having a better solution now that pairs us first solar panels is one, first solar, and then the second one would be the international sales. And then the third one that, maybe kind of, overlaps in some ways is, is having the, the 1P product now, cuz maybe that’s part of what enables a certain amount of international sales.

So, it’s too much to answer in one question, but you can imagine we could make like a three by a two by three matrix or, or table or something and say, we’re first solar panels, more than 50% or less than 50% of sales in the fourth quarter and or in the backlog or in the pipeline or international sales, above the 50% or below the 50% mark, fourth quarter backlog pipeline, whatever, you’re kind of comfortable talking about it. Same thing, with, 1P, majority 1P, minority 1P. It sounds like the 1P won’t be coming out or, or be deployed till second half of ’23. So of course that’s probably not a factor in Q4 sales, but just between those three vectors, first solar the comp, having a first solar optimized product, an international sales, and kind of 1P versus two p is, are, are, are you leaning more heavily on some of those and the other seems sounds like international, but, and kind of, greater than 50%, less than 50%, anything kind of high level there just to help us flesh out kind of trends and key drivers?

Sean Hunkler: Sure, sure. Donovan, thanks for the question. I, think those three vectors that you identified, first Solar international growth and the 1P product, adding, adding that to our portfolio are all critical because as we’ve said before, we’re we, we really have tried to pivot the company and, and not be focused on, hey, when will UFLPA end, but what are the things we can control? How can we improve the company and drive the company’s success independent of UFLPA? So all, all three of these vectors are critical, so as you know we’re shipping for revenue with a first solar Voyager 2P solution and, and as far as the 1P product goes, we’re going to ship it in the back half of the year. And it’s our intention after we, we ship the initial CRYSTALIN based product, that we will have a First Solar solution as well for the 1P vo — or excuse me, pioneer product.

And then international, like Patrick said, international takes some time, but if you, if you think about sort of a two year period, we’re in really good shape in many countries and, and we talked about, some of the great growth we’ve seen in Australia where we’ve really invested over time. And Cameron and the team are doing a, a phenomenal job. We just announced our largest project ever in Australia. And so all three of those vectors are, are very critical to us. We’re not, obviously we’re not guiding for the year, and, and so it’s hard for me to give you any specificity on the three vectors. Maybe, maybe I’ll, I’ll ask Patrick to, to provide a little bit more color, but those three vectors are all critical to our strategy to basically, grow the company and, and have the company drive success independent of UFLPA

Patrick Cook: Yeah, Donovan, I, I think the way I look at it, kind of, around Q4 and beyond, I mean, obviously we’ve had international wins. We talked about kind of the, the, the first solar solution. So you’re seeing kind of the historical kind of growth off the Q3, we said low’s in relation to us adding those kind of additional pro product portfolio and then as well as kind of ultimately expanding internationally. And we’re seeing that kind of in the, in the back or in the kind of the front half of the year. you see kind of sequential growth from what we delivered in, in Q4 and our, our guide ultimately in, in Q1. So we’re seeing, adoption of our different product portfolios and ultimately our expansion internationally. And that, and that is a, a, a portion of our overall — overall growth in spite of what’s going on in the, the, the overall market and UFLPA, which is why we talked about on our last earnings call that, Q3 we believe was our historical lows, and we’re going to springboard from that.

And I think you’re seeing that with our revenue growth as well as kind of our, our gross margin expansion as well in in those products, in in geographies.

Donovan Schafer : Okay, great. And then as a, a follow up I know you, you’re at a — you have a, with the Q3 trough and still kind of early in coming back from that, you’re at a lower revenue number. And so, the, the guidance for Q1 2023 has a, a healthy range there. Maybe in percentage terms, maybe it’s not as much in absolute terms but, but I’m curious what, explain if the range, I guess first would just be whether that range really just comes down to project timing that seems like it’s probably quite likely the situation, but just confirmation there. And then kind of related to that, if it is just around project timing you, does that leave potential for sort of significant upside for 2023, like generally and maybe circling around to kind of UFLPA or, we’re talking a lot about working around that, but there’s always sort of the hypothetical possibility of some meaningful resolution there.

Right. tensions are high between the US and China, but with everything going on with Ukraine, like we’re not really some people are interested in picking a fight with China, some people aren’t. And so, there may be parties that be, that try to come to the bargaining table and, and reach some kinds of agreements or accords or, or understandings or whatever. So, if the U.S given the range for, for the first quarter and if the UFLPA, were kind of, magically sort of resolved, would the whole, would the whole UFLPA, the, the actual exposed part of your portfolio, your backlog, would that exposed part sort of just come online quickly and you’d get a really big, like, pop or super positive performance? Or is that all would that continue at a normal trajectory anyway because of, for other reasons or if projects were canceled or postponed or have to, file for a permit extension, so on and so forth?

Patrick Cook: So Donovan, thanks, thanks for the question. So if you, if you look at our guide, the, the revenue guide is like, I believe $36 million to $40 million. So we tried to, provide a, a a, a reasonable range for, for what we think, we’re going to achieve. And, and, and not a not a, a very, a wide range. So we feel, obviously, sitting here today, we feel good about the guidance we’re providing for, for Q1. And as we’ve said before, we’re, looking at UFLPA if something does happen and, we’re hearing, what I would call some positive signals from UFLPA in terms of shipments, but if there’s something big happens, like you described that UFLPA opens up and indeed modules are in the US and available for projects cuz those would, really have to be the modules that are being held today.

But, but once the factories come back up and modules start flowing again, yeah, that’s, that’s certainly an opportunity for us because we have built into our plan that we, you know that UFLPA will persist at some level. And and frankly speaking yeah, there would be I would, I would believe there would be some upside depending on what level of modules that, UFLPA solution put into the U.S market. I, I don’t know Phelps if you want Yeah, no?