FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on FTAI Aviation Ltd. on Kairos Research’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FTAI. FTAI Aviation Ltd.’s share was trading at $174.16 as of October 15th. FTAI’s trailing and forward P/E were 42.20 and 20.83, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

FTAI Aviation ($FTAI) represents a rare case of a specialized industrial compounder trading at a reasonable valuation despite its unique positioning in the aerospace aftermarket. Following its 2022 spin-off from FTAI Infrastructure, the company has evolved into a vertically integrated aircraft maintenance, repair, and exchange (MRE) platform with two key segments: Aerospace Products and Leasing. The core thesis centers on the Aerospace Products business, which leverages ownership of over 600 engines, strategic cost advantages, and proprietary access to key engine parts to dominate the maintenance market for the world’s most widely used commercial jet engines—the CFM56 and V2500.

Through its exclusive partnership with Chromalloy, FTAI receives five FAA-approved PMA hot-section parts at cost, saving up to $2 million per shop visit and creating a structural profitability advantage difficult for peers to replicate. With margins already near 35% and potentially expanding to 50% as remaining PMA parts are approved, the economics are exceptional.

FTAI’s MRE model is capital-efficient and highly scalable, targeting 750 module exchanges in 2025 and $600 million in segment EBITDA, with potential to exceed $1 million EBITDA per visit longer term. Its strategic capital initiative (SCI) provides an additional growth lever, enabling asset-light expansion through off-balance-sheet aircraft ownership that feeds recurring MRE demand and fee income.

Backed by CEO Joseph Adams—aligned through a large personal stake, FTAI maintains modest leverage (2.2x) and growing returns on capital. While a Muddy Waters short report questioned accounting practices, multiple banks and an internal audit deemed claims unfounded. With 20–30% expected revenue growth, expanding margins, and an EV/EBITDA of 16x, FTAI offers 16–97% upside potential, supported by durable competitive advantages, aligned management, and multiple catalysts for continued rerating.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) by Komodo Capital in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s vertically integrated MRO model, exclusive PMA parts partnership, Strategic Capital Initiative, and strong pricing power across CFM56 and V2500 engines. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 68% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as FTAI’s long-term growth levers remain intact. Kairos Research shares a similar perspective but emphasizes updated financials, margin expansion potential, and upside from upcoming PMA approvals and SCI execution.

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Disclosure: None.