From Fired Researcher to $13.7 Billion King: How Leopold Aschenbrenner Broke the Hedge Fund World

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11. ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) PUT

Situational Awareness LP’s Stake: $494 Million

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) is a new addition to the 13F portfolio of Situational Awareness LP. The fund declared a new stake in the company in filings for the first quarter of 2026. This stake consists of PUT bets worth close to 375,000 shares. The firm provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The next leg of growth for ASML relies on customers like TSM, Intel, and Samsung transitioning to ultra-advanced High Numerical Aperture (High NA) EUV machines. Short-sellers argue that the staggering physical cost of these systems is hitting an economic brick wall.

A single standard EUV machine from ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) costs roughly $180 million to $200 million. The new High NA EUV systems carry a jaw-dropping price tag of almost $380 million to $400 million per unit. At $400 million a machine, the return on investment for chip foundries becomes highly strained. Major customers are pushing back against this. TSM has explicitly noted that it will rely on existing, heavily optimized Low NA EUV equipment for upcoming advanced nodes through late 2026/2027, rather than buying High NA units at scale. Short-sellers calculate that multi-year projections for ASML overestimate how quickly foundries will absorb this capital expenditure burden, creating risk of a High NA order vacuum.

While we acknowledge the potential of ASML to grow, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASML and that has 100x upside potential, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

Click to continue reading and see Leopold Aschenbrenner Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stocks.

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