From Fired Researcher to $13.7 Billion King: How Leopold Aschenbrenner Broke the Hedge Fund World

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15. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) PUT

Situational Awareness LP’s Stake: $159 Million

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is a new addition to the 13F portfolio of Situational Awareness LP. The fund declared a new stake in the company in filings for the first quarter of 2026. This stake consists of PUT bets worth close to 3.6 million shares. The firm has an ambition to become the premier contract foundry for the Western world. This requires massive amounts of capital expenditure, but the segment is currently operating as a severe drag on the consolidated financials of the parent company. The Intel Foundry segment recorded an operating loss of $2.40 billion for Q1 2026 alone. While this loss technically compressed marginally quarter-over-quarter due to early improvements in Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) wafer mix on the Intel 3 and 18A nodes, the foundry remains unprofitable.

READ MORE: 10 Stocks That Tanked: Why Larry Robbins’ Top Picks Are Struggling in 2026.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) has been forced to pour roughly $5 billion in gross quarterly CapEx into fab infrastructure, resulting in an adjusted free cash flow of negative $2 billion for the quarter. Bears argue that Intel cannot scale fast enough to stop this cash bleed before traditional cash-cow segments begin to erode. Bulls point to top-line Q1 2026 revenue of $13.60 billion as a sign of stabilization. However, segment breakdowns reveal that Intel is failing to secure the highly lucrative external design wins required to sustain a standalone foundry business model. Out of the $5.4 billion in total Intel Foundry revenue reported in Q1, External Foundry revenue accounted for a meager $174 million. Over 96% of factory utilization is still just Intel manufacturing its own internal chips. The company is failing to win meaningful market share from external hyperscalers or fabless rivals who continue to favor TSM.

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