From Fired Researcher to $13.7 Billion King: How Leopold Aschenbrenner Broke the Hedge Fund World

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30. Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE)

Situational Awareness LP’s Stake: Sold Off

Filings for the first quarter of 2026 show that Leopold Aschenbrenner has sold off the stake his hedge fund had in Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE). In the fourth quarter of 2025, the fund owned 1.3 million shares in the company. Lumentum manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Over the past six months, the shares have rallied close to 170%. Even during a massive macro-tailwinds period for artificial intelligence networks, the internal operational momentum of the firm is flashing subtle warning signs that top-line growth is hitting a localized ceiling.

READ MORE: Mark Cuban Stock Portfolio: 8 Best Stocks to Buy.

In the Q3 FY2026 print, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) reported net revenue of $808.4 million. While this was up 90% year-over-year, it actively missed institutional consensus revenue expectations of $820.4 million by roughly $12 million. Despite a recent profit surge, the 5-year trailing earnings for the company have declined by 33.1% per year. The firm has historically been prone to severe boom-and-bust capital expenditure cycles by telecom and hyperscale data center operators. The bear case layout highlights that Lumentum is priced more like a software-as-a-service monolith than a capital-intensive hardware component manufacturer. Any shift in AI hardware spending capital could lead to rapid downside.

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