Thomas Schmitt: So I’m doing this top of my head, Tyler, and I’ll get it close enough to write , who runs our pricing. He would know the exact number. So what we do there is — and I’ll tell you directionally correct numbers. So what we do there is we look at the — one of the best sources for forecasting, that’s the Energy Institute in Washington. They have for this year — and if they have it by month, by the way. So we have it by month 2 in our forecast. We don’t try to outsmart people who do this for a living full time. So we took on average for this year something around $4.23, $4.24. That number was, I believe, in 2022 more like $4.89. So in rough terms, let’s say, $4.90-ish to $4.20-ish step down by about $0.70. Once we actually get that through our math exercise, and we also have some employee drivers where the math works slightly differently.
But this gets translated into at this point in the model a $0.61 headwind comparing 2022 to 2023. So it’s a $4.90 to $4.20-ish step down.
Patrick Brown: Yes. Okay. That is extremely helpful. And kind of going back to the weight per shipment. So I think you’re around 730-ish pounds. Do you think that, that’s going to be a low mark? Do you think it can build from here? Maybe can you talk about where your current weight per shipment is? I think that would be helpful. And just longer term, when we think about the model, where do you think you kind of pan out in terms of weight? Is this — is 800 pounds more like a stasis kind of weight? Or could it be higher than that? Or should it be lower than that? Just kind of any broad thoughts there.
Thomas Schmitt: Yes. My sense is this, Tyler. So your numbers that you have, and you just quoted are correct. That is where we are. I would want to believe that the 730-ish is kind of the low mark. Again, this goes back to way fewer pieces, way fewer pieces than we saw 6 months ago and that we will see again at some point. And if it doesn’t come as early as we want to, then we need to pull a few extra levers, including a couple more tuck-in acquisitions. But we probably will never get into the 1,200, 1,500 kind of pound range because this is where you deal with bulk commodities where you deal with kind of big shipments that are more kind of in the retail and kind of consumer goods sector. We tend to be more specialized. I mean, remember, this is what used to be air freight being grounded in many, many cases.
So there’s a difference between what a world-class company like an Old Dominion or a Saia in the class freight space hauls and moves and what we move. Remember also, I mean, in some cases, for the more sensitive but smaller high-value shipments, some of these best companies in the LTL space are our customers. But 800 sounds like a good space, perhaps even 850, 900, we were there when shipments were full. So I think that’s possible.
Patrick Brown: Okay. And just my last one. On Land Air. So it sounds like it is expected to be accretive here in year 1. I’m calculating maybe $6 million to $7 million in EBIT.
Thomas Schmitt: That’s fair.
Patrick Brown: Yes. So when you think about ’24, I feel like there’s more to the story longer term from an accretion perspective. Can you just talk about maybe what you would expect over the next few years out of Land Air and maybe what’s kind of the benefits were from this deal?
