Fortive Corporation (NYSE:FTV) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Julian Mitchell: And then my follow-up would just be — is typical, I suppose, you give guidance for year one and then someone asked about year two. But if I look at Slide 14, you do have that, I guess, it seemed medium-term when you gave it but you’ve got $450-ish million or maybe $430 million [ph], excluding capital deployment number for 2025 and obviously, a year from now, that will be a formal guide whatever you end up giving not a medium-term aspiration. So I guess I’m trying to ask kind of how, given it is only 11 months away now, that period how seriously should investors treat that number of $450 million [ph] does require a fair amount of M&A over this year. So any thoughts around the M&A market backdrop. One of your acquisitive peers were saying it’s maybe looking a little bit better now.

James Lico: Yes, a couple of things. I think when you look at our history in terms of double-digit EPS growth and the compounding free cash flow, I think, it’s not an enormously to get to that $450 million. That’s why we put those numbers out there a year ago and we reiterated them in the guide and on the presentation. So we obviously feel good long way away, a lot can happen but we feel good about it. I think relative to the M&A market; we just closed a quarter where we did basically 5 deals — between including kind of closing in the early part of January. So it’s across the board in every segment, a variety of different sources from private equity to private ownership, founder-led companies good breadth across a number of our workflows.

So we feel really good about the M&A environment and we just demonstrated really good progress against the M&A environment. EA is starting off really well. And where we start — we now think that’s going to be accretive in the year, only right after closing it. So we’ve seen really good things there. So, I would say the — what we’ve done, we’re really proud of that work, good work that set us up well back to your comment about ’25 would the EA and those other deals are going to be helpful in ’25 for sure. And quite frankly, when you look at the environment that we’re in right now, probably a little bit better. Certainly, we’ve demonstrated that and we want to continue to, as always, as you know, Julian, we’re always busy and we’re excited about the opportunities that are in front of us but we’re also incredibly excited about the teams that have just joined Fortive.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.

Jeff Sprague: Just a couple for me. Just back on ASP and the Consumables growth, 7% sounds pretty healthy. Is there some kind of I don’t know, kind of channel fill in the direct model that had to happen, as you looked from distribution to direct, there something abnormal about that number? What are you expecting for consumables growth in the U.S. for 2024?

James Lico: We’ll be in the mid-single-digit range. There’s probably a hint of catch-up from Q3 there but not a lot of inventory build we would expect it to be mid-single digit for them across the board. And obviously, I wouldn’t want to be a predictor of 7% every quarter. But as we said, we validated the strategy, I think, in Q4 with what we want to do as I mentioned, with the team last week, they’re incredibly optimistic about where they stand today and where they stand for the year and in the future years as well. So I think we’re in a good place.

Jeff Sprague: And then just on EA, obviously, then didn’t own it in Q4 but any color on how it grew in Q4? And can you just be a little more specific on what you expect for growth in 2024, again, to be in M&A but kind of the underlying growth in the business in 2024?

James Lico: Yes. We, first of all, we closed the first week of January; we’re off to a good start. 100-day plan is scheduled. We’ve got our [indiscernible] room set up with integration. Our teams are really excited about the work we can do together. As you remember, Jeff, when we announced the deal, we said we’d have the opportunity to take our big Tektronix sales force and sell those solutions. We started our annual sales kick-off over the last couple of weeks. A lot of excitement about that. Relative to, specifically to your question, December was a record order month for the business. So they ended the year strong and there’s a tremendous amount of growth opportunities there, in front of us. They’ve got a good backlog situation.

So we feel good. We feel good about the revenue base for the year and what that can grow. Obviously, it won’t be in our core but until ’25 but we feel good about the growth. Relative to we now think this is probably a mid-single-digit ROIC in ’24 which is up from the original thesis around the deal. So we’re already ahead of the game. Growth should be good. And we think the business is probably in the $190 million to $195 million — $195 million range, that’s probably where it will be for the year. So. So we’re in a really good place with the business. It’s a good team. As I mentioned before and it’s going to, that’s why I think when you step back and look at the deals we did, the previous question, we feel good about the year. 6% to 8% overall growth for the year stands up, obviously, EA being one of the big parts of that but the other acquisition is adding some as well.

Jeff Sprague: And just I’m sorry, a little quick housekeeping one, too. Just the design piece of Invetech, is that a divestible business? Or are you just winding it down? And how big is that piece?

James Lico: It’s in the $20 million range of revenue breakeven. So it’s, we’ll look at a number of options. I think we’ve got, there are buyers out there for sure. The team is working on some different things. So the other part of that business is called [indiscernible] motion. So as you can imagine, it really was originally in our Sensing and Automation businesses. It’s really — it helps Life Science and customers but it’s but like our other Sensing businesses, quite frankly, it has more of an industrial aspect to, from an OEM perspective. That business has done pretty well over the last few years. So we’ll anticipate keeping that as part of the portfolio but we’re going to look for options on the other time.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets.

Deane Dray: The word destocking didn’t prop up in any of your prepared remarks which is a relief. Any color there in terms of inventory in the channel, Fluke, sell-in, sell-through, any issues there?

James Lico: Yes. I think to the second part of your question, mid-single-digit POS growth at Fluke around the world in the fourth quarter. So, good solid growth. Down from the double digit we’ve seen for a while. But still, I think that would be, that we take that number pretty solidly. A little bit of destocking at Tek in the U.S. Single-digit millions but a little bit and some in China, maybe more broadly. I would say that that’s, we now think China is likely to probably not grow in the year that’s embedded in our guide and some of that is going to be just, I would say, less destocking than it is just conservativeness on the part of the Chinese distributor and Chinese channel partners to sort of see how the macro evolves out there over the year. But again, that’s embedded in our guidance.