Forge Global Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FRGE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Dominic Paschel: Yes. Look, it’s a pretty big deal for us. And clearly, we have been working on it for a while. Mark will give a little bit of color on sort of traction so far. I guess when we look at our business model, and I’ve been talking about subscription-based or data-driven revenues for a few years, this really represents a combination of two really powerful things. First of all, we talked about the quality of data and the fact that we run a platform where we can verify the quality of IOIs and obviously substantiate pricing through the platform. But when you combine that data with some of the automated trading capabilities and access to our global interest book, which we’ve not opened up for anyone else up to this point, this is a pretty major moment.

Now we see this continuing along the path of a subscription-based model. So think of it as another dimension of how we sell a recurring revenue data product, but it’s really targeting institutions that trade. So the combination of the global order book and that data quality, we think is the game changer for us. It’s still early days. I’ll let Mark speak to sort of where we are, but we’re pretty excited about this. And obviously, my point earlier about the relationship between data and trading, we see and have a belief that that benefits forge in that network effect. But Mark, I’ll let you take it from there.

Mark Lee: Yeah. Let me expand a little bit, Devin, on that. So I mean, we all know when we rolled out Forge Intelligence, people could see trading data, our order book, VWAP, waterfall models, mutual fund data, phermographic information. So that was version 1.0. Now if you talk about Forge Pro, we really think this is important because it’s our first step towards order and execution management, technology and capabilities for our institutional trading customers. It specifically gives our customers the ability to input their IOIs with full visibility to live, real-time visibility to our global order book. And so they can put in their orders, they can track the order status. It gives them full depth of market and institutional style view.

So we really think that this is the first step of really improving the customer experience and the automation of the entire process. I think we’ve also talked about this that as we see the evolution for our data business, we really break it down into kind of three distinct segments where you have our institutional trading clients where we are looking to bundle our trading and data services, so that they can take advantage of the full basket of the information and the services that we can provide. Number two, those that are not trading clients, we see a business where we’re getting subscriptions at Forge Intelligence. And then number three, you’ve heard us talk about this a lot, drive data, I’m referring specifically to our index products and Forge price.

And that, of course, we think there’s a lot of opportunity we’ve talked about the Forge Private Market Index, now the investable index. So we think about our data world in those three different categories.

Kelly Rodriques: That’s great.

Devin Ryan: Okay. I leave it there. Thank you guys.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Moley from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Patrick Moley: Yeah. Hi, guys. Good evening.

Kelly Rodriques: Hi, Patrick.

Patrick Moley: Yeah. So looking back a few years now, when you went public, I think one of the things that you had identified was that the TAM, I think, in 2021 was around $3 billion. You thought that could grow to around $8 billion by 2026. So I mean, obviously, we’ve hit a little bit of a cyclical downturn here, but just wondering if you still think that if we do get an uptick in the market, do you still think $8 billion is a reasonable TAM for 2026? And if so, what are maybe some of the things that we’ve seen since 2021 that would kind of indicate that we could see that kind of spring loaded acceleration?

Mark Lee: Yeah. Hey, Patrick, this is Mark. Yes. So I think that we’ll have to probably come back and refresh our TAM with you more directly. But here’s how I think we think about it. Back in 2021, we looked at roughly 1,200 private companies across the world with maybe a $4 trillion market cap. I think at this point, now you look at kind of what’s happened since 2021. There’s still roughly that number of unicorns. Obviously, the market cap with these unicorns, have hit a snag in the last two years. But we still fundamentally believe that in the long run, that these are, again, I mean, our whole thesis, right? These are the most innovative companies in the world. We continue to see new unicorns emerge globally, right? We’re seeing a lot of activity in Forge Europe and in Asia.

And so, I think our thesis remains the same. Our TAM, we have an updated number that we’ve dropped that $8 billion down to $7 billion, I think, based on the kind of the most recent information. But I think our fundamental thesis remains the same as we talked about back in 2021. I don’t know anything you want to add to that, Kelly?

Kelly Rodriques: No, no. I think, there’s still some very large macro trends that will continue to make it attractive for companies around the world to stay private longer. We see that emerging with maybe a four or five-year lag in Europe but we see this trend remaining. Obviously, we’re in a bit of a cycle turn now, and we’ve believed for a while that the longer-term opportunities there. And we felt making the investments while others couldn’t, makes this a pretty important time. So we’re really proud looking back on what we’ve built in 2022 and 2023 to come out of this with the right kind of tech and the right kind of reputation and data. So we’re excited.