First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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With regards to high versus standard mechanical load modules, we may reintroduce the stand-alone product in future years. And in doing so, we would expect to see a cost per watt benefit. As it relates to exit rates, comparing Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, we’re forecasting a cost per watt produced increase of 4% to 6% or approximately $0.01 per watt. This is driven by several factors, including costs driven by the expected implementation of bifaciality at our lead line in Perrysburg in Q4 of 2023, which results in a reduction in front side watts, offset by a higher energy production profile; planned downtime associated with our Series 6 throughput optimization in Ohio; and a headwind associated with our Series 7 factory in Perrysburg, exiting its ramp phase in mid to late 2023, but not yet operating at full scale by year-end.

As it relates to cost per watt sold, we ended Q4 2022 with a 2% year-over-year increase over Q4 2021, in line with our most recent forecast. This was largely due to higher sales freight and logistics costs. In 2023, we expect sales freight and logistics costs trend back towards pre-pandemic levels throughout the year. Several key metrics, including reliability of schedule, transit times and congestion are currently trending positively. However, transit time volatility generally and labor relations in West Coast ports post potential headwinds. We are working to mitigate these issues through shipping route and port-of-entry optimization and through further utilization of our warehousing network. In addition, as part of our contracting strategy, approximately 67% of our volumes sold in 2023 has some form of sales freight risk coverage.

Although given the forecasted reduction in sales freight and logistics costs, we expect limited excess recovery in 2023. On a cents per watt basis, we expect our full year sales freight and logistics costs to be approximately $0.027 per watt, with international transit costs remaining above pre-pandemic norms. Taken together, we forecast cost per watt produced, ramp and underutilization and sales freight and logistics costs to combine to yield a Q4 2022 to Q4 2023 net reduction in cost per watt sold of 9% to 11% and full year 2022 to 2023 cost per watt sold reduction of 7% to 9%. On a full year basis, expected ramp and underutilization costs impact our cost per watt sold reduction by approximately 4 percentage points. With respect to other commodities, we continue to largely mitigate exposure to glass costs through strategic long-term, predominantly fixed price agreements with domestic suppliers that have economic benefits to us as we achieve high levels of production.

We do expect the near-term volatility in glass pricing, given that the contractual provisions in our supply contracts relating to input cost adjustments operates on a backward-looking basis. And therefore, we are seeing a slight increase in cost in the first half of 2023, which is expected to then reduce in the second half of the year. From a frame perspective, there’s been a reversion of aluminum and steel rates back to historical levels. We expect these costs to be less of a headwind in 2023. Related to framing costs, we have hedged 90% of our aluminum exposure for our Series 6 U.S. plants in 2023, which is approximately 1/3 of our Series 6 production. In addition, substantially all of our Series 7 production, which utilizes a steel back rail, is subject to contractual steel adjusters.

And lastly, with respect to operating expenses, despite a forecasted increase in operating expenses in 2023, particularly related to research and development, we continue to scale manufacturing capacity at a greater rate than operating expenses, leveraging our fixed cost structure to reduce operating expense per watt and increase operating margin. So with this in mind, I’ll next discuss 2023 financial guidance. Please turn to Slide 9. Strategically, in 2022, we completed the sales of our Japan project development business, our Japan O&M business and our Chilean Luz del Norte asset. In January of this year, we completed the sale of our 10-megawatt Maricao operating asset in India, bringing our PV solar power systems balance on our balance sheet, as of today, to zero.

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