First American Financial Corporation (NYSE:FAF) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kenneth DeGiorgio: Yes. It’s really impossible to tell. It’s extremely difficult. I mean certainly, some orders that might have been open with us in the last couple of weeks of December might have opened somewhere else, though, again, we saw some of the spillover, which maybe they were holding the orders and send them to us as soon as our systems got back online. I think where the real issue is our orders that would have closed with us at the end of December and either the customer moved them or in many instances, we move to those orders. But keep in mind, that’s behind us now. Those things are behind us now. So we’re focused on the orders we got. And again, I think a lot of them, if not all of them are not of them spilled over into January and we’ll realize the benefit of those orders in the ordinary course, and of the ordinary time frames, be they a purchase refi or a commercial order.

John Campbell: Okay. That makes sense. And then, Mark, on the investment income, you mentioned the $15 million sensitivity to every 25 basis point cut. I wanted to see if you could give us your latest sensitivity or I guess, maybe a rule of thumb on the interest expense offset. So for every $15 million, how much you would be able to offset in interest expense?

Mark Seaton: That’s something we can tighten up. But I would say — first of all, it’s a good point because if we lose investment income, we are going to lose interest expense the high-level rule of thumb is. If we lose the dollar of investment income, we’ll lose about $0.50 of interest expense. I mean a lot — that’s kind of what I would use for maybe modeling purposes. A lot of it depends on the mix of where our investment income is coming from, how much that’s the bank versus the nonbank. But that’s the high level rule some might use.

John Campbell: Okay. Okay. And then if I could squeeze in one more here. On the success ratio. I think you guys had talked to maybe kind of similar 50% or so in 2024. Obviously, you will be lapping this weaker quarter. For next year, you’re going to have maybe appear a little bit of losses out of the investments. You’ve obviously got some impact from investment income, but maybe if you could talk to whether you feel like that’s still kind of a target that you will manage to?

Kenneth DeGiorgio: John, I mean, we’re definitely managing to the 50%, 60% success ratio. Keep in mind though, when we talk about modest revenue growth, the success ratio is less meaningful. But no, we’re absolutely still managing to that level.

Mark Seaton: And John, I just want to follow up on your first question. So when I said for every dollar of investment income, we lose $0.50 of interest expense. That’s in the title segment only. I mean obviously, the corporate segment, we have our the interest expense from our bonds that are outstanding. So my commentary was for title segment only.

Operator: Our next question comes from Geoffrey Dunn with Dowling & Partners.

Geoffrey Dunn: My first question is with respect to the automated title and end point how much insight do you have into the time line of that remaining — or both those initiatives remaining a drag on your margin? .

Kenneth DeGiorgio: Well, I mean, I don’t think I mean it’s not going to last forever. I think Endpoint — 2023 was probably a peak year in the losses of Endpoint. And I think those are going to gradually come down over the next couple of years. On instant decisioning for purchase transactions, as Mark mentioned, the expenses are probably going to ramp up, but it’s early days on that initiative, very early days. And while I think the expense on the whole scope of thing is fairly modest, it will increase modestly over time until we start to realize the benefits of that. That was much harder to predict, but I would anticipate, again, with endpoint that those — the drag is starting to decrease, and it will decrease over time over the next couple of years.

Geoffrey Dunn: And then sorry, a more macro question. I think you — it sounded like maybe you thought the MBA was a bit aggressive on their forecast. As you go into ’24, are you positioning the company more for — like somewhere in the range of the Fannie and MBA forecast? Or are you maybe more cautious? And I’m particularly interested in your thoughts of the scenario where maybe we see 1 to 3 cuts, but late in the year and ’23 or ’24 looks like — looking more like ’23 than it does ’25.

Kenneth DeGiorgio: Well, I think ’25 is going to look a lot better than ’24 and ’23. So I guess I view ’24 as a transition year. So yes, we think the MBA is pretty optimistic. We think the GSEs are probably a little optimistic as well. We’re probably coming in a little light of them. And again, we see — as we mentioned earlier, we see modest revenue growth. But I do see ’24 as a transition year. And if we get the rate cuts that the forward curve expects or even if we get 1 or 2 less, I think it’s setting us up for a great 2025.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mark DeVries with Deutsche Bank. .

Mark DeVries: One more question for you about the impact of the cybersecurity incident. Mark, as you pointed out, there’s a lag in reporting in the agent channel. Should we not expect to see that kind of flow through to 1Q agent premiums?

Mark Seaton: We will definitely have some that trickles over in the first quarter. There’s no question about that, but it’s just — it’s not going to be material. I wouldn’t say it’s material at all. So there will be remittances that we get because our agents just couldn’t like remit the last week or two of the year. And so we’re getting those now. But typically, it’s a fairly slow time for agent remittances anyways, and it’s just — it won’t be material in Q1.