Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (NYSE:FNF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Mike Nolan: Yeah, I think it would be helpful in responding to that. As we think about 2022, and we had the €“ as you pointed out, the full year at 16.7%, our really third best in almost 20 years, but a 12.3% in the fourth quarter, so we kind of had a declination in that regard. But as you look at the year, it was really a tale of two halves, if you will. And if you think about the now existing home sale numbers and in January of 2022, their annualized number was over 6 million existing home sales, which if we had, had that would have been one of the best existing home sale markets in the last 20 years. And by the fourth quarter of the same year, that number was down closer to 4 million, which if annualized, would be one of the worst home sale markets in the last 20 years, and that happened in the same year.

So I think that volatility definitely makes it more challenging as you kind of manage your margins in a downward environment. And then we had by the time we got to the fourth quarter of we had of the weakest refinance markets since 2000. So when you think about the environment that we ended up in the fourth quarter with very low refinance activity and very soft existing home sale activity. It doesn’t create a lot of inventory for the industry as we go into the first quarter. And I think that inventory issue also was an impact on the industry in the fourth quarter, but it’s really going to show up in the first quarter. So margins will definitely be pressured and lower than we’ve seen in the last few years, particularly in Q1. And then we’ll just have to see how they progress over the course of the year.

I mean, I think we’ll get some help from commercial. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be as strong as in 2022, but I think we still have a solid commercial market. And then I would say that, we’re very confident that as the market returns that will drive margins in a positive direction, particularly because of our current cost structure. And also encouraged by the increase in purchase orders that we saw in January being up 33% sequentially to December is certainly encouraging. And I think it really points to the underlying demand and really tailwinds around housing, particularly if we get an environment where rates are easing and maybe prices moderate a little bit. And I €“ I wouldn’t be surprised at all with some help from rates that we see a rebound in those annualized existing home sales numbers that could move really quickly, I think maybe similar to how it fell off.

So €“ I’ll pause there.

Andrew Kligerman: That was very helpful. And I guess I feel like I have to take a negative very skeptical view of the environment. If the environment stays as is, probably Fidelity €“ Mike, you wouldn’t want to cut too much more on other op expenses and staff, right? Because as you were saying earlier, things could go the other way very quickly. So should I not expect too much of a cut in either staff or other operating expenses?