Everus Construction Group, Inc. (ECG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Everus Construction Group, Inc. on Value Don’t Lie’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bull’s thesis on ECG. Everus Construction Group, Inc.’s share was trading at $59.79 as of 19^th June. ECG’s trailing and forward P/E ratios were 20.08 and 24.10, respectively, according to Yahoo Finance.

MDU Resources (MDU) is nearing the completion of a multi-year restructuring, having spun off its aggregates business, Knife River, and now preparing to separate Everus Construction Group (ECG), leaving behind a pure-play regulated utility and pipeline company. Everus, the SpinCo, offers construction services across two segments: Electrical & Mechanical (74% of 2023 revenue) and Transmission & Distribution (26%).

With annual revenue and EBITDA growth of 9–10% from 2019 to mid-2024, the business has demonstrated steady performance, though with limited margin expansion due to its variable cost structure. Looking forward, tailwinds from federal initiatives like the CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act, grid modernization, and AI/data center buildouts create a strong demand backdrop. Management expects 5–7% organic revenue growth and 7–9% EBITDA growth, while maintaining low leverage (1.3x at spin) and modest capex (2–2.5%).

Given peer valuations in the 12–14x EBITDA range, Everus could command $9–13 per share ($36–52 post-spin), even accounting for $28M in standalone dis-synergies. Meanwhile, RemainCo MDU, operating regulated utility and pipeline businesses across the northern U.S., serves over 1 million natural gas and 145,000 electric customers, with a diversified generation mix and over 3,800 miles of gas infrastructure.

Having exited non-regulated pipeline assets, the company now mirrors a traditional utility and may trade at a discount despite steady growth and lower-than-peer leverage. With ~$2.1B in post-spin net debt and $170–180M in estimated 2024 net income, MDU looks attractively valued at sub-utility multiples. The restructuring unlocks distinct investment theses in both entities, with Everus positioned for growth and MDU offering stability and potential capital allocation upside.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Everus Construction Group, Inc. by Unemployed Value Degen in April 2025, which highlighted undervaluation, strong backlogs, and insider buying. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately 61% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out with improving sentiment. The thesis still stands as valuations remain below peers. Value Don’t Lie shares an identical view but emphasizes macro-driven growth drivers.

Everus Construction Group, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 29 hedge fund portfolios held ECG at the end of the first quarter, which was 39 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ECG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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