Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

The value created from increased production and reduced CO2 emissions was more than $2 billion in 2023. To reduce the unplanned downtime, we are widely implementing predictive maintenance. A single instance on Kårstø allowed our experts to detect an emerging failure and save $30 million. The innovative power in Equinor is also highly engaged in developing new value chains. Let me highlight a few examples. Building on the great experience from our Integrated Operation Centre, we are introducing new digital solutions for operation and maintenance on the Dogger Bank windfarm. These solutions are currently not available in the market. This will extend lifetime from 25 to 35 years, allowing us to increase revenues in the merchant period, reduce operational costs and increase efficiency.

Our venture team is actively engaged with startups all over the world. The collaboration between start-ups and an industrial player like Equinor creates massive synergies. Last year, we entered into a strategic partnership with Captura to develop an industrial scale solution to remove CO2 from ocean. We will pilot Captura’s Direct Ocean Capture technology at Kårstø. The captured CO2 is planned used for the commissioning of the Northern Light facilities. This pilot is an important step towards commerciality for ocean capture technology. To sum up, we are stepping up on innovation. We are investing $800 million in 2024 in R&D. We are combining partnerships with confidence, data, technology and of course, fully utilizing the opportunities within AI.

This is how we will secure longevity and competitiveness on the NCS and beyond and unlock new business opportunities in the value chain. Thank you. And with that, I welcome Torgrim up on stage.

Torgrim Reitan: So good afternoon, everyone. Very good to see you, see you again as always. And thank you, Hege. So three things. We aim to grow cash flow from operations all the way to 2025. And we aim to maintain a strong return on capital employed while we do this. And then based on this growth and a strong return, we are going to step up the ordinary capital distribution. And we are going to provide you with a competitive capital distribution. But let me start with the 2023 results. The solid operational performance and production growth led to strong results in the quarter and for the year. The cash flow from operations came in at $19.7 billion, in line with what we said in the Capital Markets Day last year. Strategically, we saw solid progress in the quarter, optimizing our oil and gas portfolio and announced divestments in Nigeria and Azerbaijan.

The long-term gas sales agreement with SEFE will provide Europe with 10 billion cubic meter of gas until 2034, and there’s an option there to prolong that to 2039. And this is one of the largest gas sales that we have done. And I think it demonstrates very well the long-term attractiveness of natural gas to Europe. And then we have high-graded our renewables portfolio by taking 100% ownership in a mature Empire Wind project in the U.S. So strong production in the quarter and for the year, we delivered 2.1 million barrels per day, more than 2% growth from last year despite the prolonged turnarounds on the NCS impacting the production in the second and third quarter. International production was strong through the year and the increased capacity at Johan Sverdrup contributed well.

Renewables production came in 17% higher than last year and Gas-to-power from Triton Power was lower in the quarter due to weaker spark spreads. Then to the financials. We continued to deliver strong earnings, impacted by lower pre-prices than the year before. Adjusted earnings in E&P Norway totaled $7.6 billion before tax, driven primarily by higher production. Our International segment delivered more than $850 million in total, and the U.S. business was impacted by an exploration expense of around $160 million. Marketing and Midstream segment came in at the lower end of the guided range for the quarter, mainly due to lower liquids margins. However, MMP has delivered within or above the increased guided range for four consecutive quarters.

Our Renewables business posted negative results due to high project activity level and as expected. Our adjusted OpEx and SG&A is up 7%, similar to the production growth that we have seen quarter-to-quarter. The underlying cost increase is also around 7% when you adjust for currency and one-offs. So our focus on cost and capital discipline continues. The tax rates were high in the quarter, largely due to one-off effects in E&P Norway and EPI. In addition, MMP’s tax rate was higher, driven by the high share of earnings from natural gas. And finally, we report a net impairment of slightly above $300 million in the quarter related to the Azerbaijan divestments. However, we expect to post a gain on the Nigeria divestments when that closes. The cash flow from operations after tax came in at $19.7 billion.

Our organic net CapEx is $10.2 billion for the full-year, also in line with our guiding. For the fourth quarter, NCS tax payments totaled around $8 billion. And for the first half of 2024, this year, we expect to pay three installments of NOK 37 billion each. Last quarter, capital distribution was significant, $3.2 billion. So then, our balance sheet is strong with $39 billion in cash and that brings our net debt ratio to negative 22% by end of the year. So now let me move to the Capital Markets update, where I will share how we will grow cash flow all the way to 2035 from a broader portfolio with lower emissions and how we will deliver strong returns and competitive capital distribution while we do all of this. So let us start with our financial framework.

Value over volume is fundamental to the way we are building our business. And this support a return on capital employed above 15%. Our long-term guidance to our net debt ratio is 15% to 30%. We are well positioned, and we are comfortable operating below this level, but we will move towards this range – we will move towards this range using capital distribution as one of our tools. And with the $14 billion distribution for 2024, we expect our net debt to be positive be by year-end. We are robust to lower prices and can be cash flow neutral at around $55 per barrel. This is a slight increase from last year impacted by other things by increased CapEx. We remain disciplined, and we have large flexibility in our investment program to handle a low-price scenario.

And then, we are progressing in line with our energy transition plan. Within this framework, we expect to deliver a strong and growing cash flow for many years to come. In the middle here, you see around $20 billion per year coming from oil, gas and trading. And on top of that, $3 billion from renewables and low carbon solutions in 2030. So this is an increase. This is an increase compared to what we said last year. So let’s take a closer look at how this all come together. So the blue bars, they show our cash flow at different price decks. In the middle of the bar, you see the $75 case. And you can see that it grows significantly through this decade. We expect $23 billion in 2030. Of that, oil and gas is expected to be $20 billion on average per year.

For 2024, the number is around $17.5 billion, impacted by the tax lag on the NCS, but coming back to above $20 billion in 2025. In the appendix, you can find an overview of sensitivities for different prices. On top of the orange bar, you can see the material contribution from renewables and low carbon towards the end of the decade. And then the green bars, they show CapEx. You can see the stable investments into oil and gas of around $10 billion per year. We intend to farm down in some of our international projects with a high ownership share. For example, our Rosebank project in the U.K., and this is included in this. Also, you can see the gradually growing investments to renewables and low carbon as we have planned. For 2024, we guide on an organic CapEx of around $13 billion.

Empire Wind in New York will now be fully consolidated into our accounts, and it will increase our reported CapEx by around $1.2 billion in 2024 and $1.5 billion the year after. So that asset is – this is fully reflected in our CapEx guidance with 100% ownership in that asset. The development of Empire Wind is subject to a positive result in the fourth bid round in New York. For 2025 to 2027, we expect annual CapEx of $14 million to $15 billion on average. However, keep in mind, for the Empire Wind project, we intend to use project financing and we aim to farm down at the right time. And this would lead to reduction in CapEx. So we have significant CapEx flexibility with more than half of our CapEx linked to non-sanctioned projects from 2025 going forward.

And we operate most of our investments ourselves. So that is 2030. As you have heard from Anders, we see cash flow growth towards 2035. Oil and gas continues to deliver around $20 billion per year, and we aim to double the cash flow from renewables and low carbon to more than $6 billion. And as we grow and transition, we will have value over volume front and center, and we aim for a return on capital employed of 15% in 2035. So we have an attractive oil and gas project portfolio with low breakevens around $35 per barrel, high returns, 30% IRR, short payback time, 2.5 years and a low carbon intensity of less than 6-kilo per barrel. We work with our partners and suppliers to drive down cost and improve the project. And as you know, we will not sanction projects unless they are good enough.