Equinor ASA (EQNR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Equinor ASA on Nishant Chandra’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on EQNR. Equinor ASA’s share was trading at $24.51 as of January 13th. EQNR’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.43 and 16.31 , respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Europe’s decision to fully eliminate Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 marks a structural and irreversible shift in the continent’s energy landscape, creating both political tension and a massive economic opportunity for alternative suppliers. While policymakers frame the move as energy sovereignty and consumers brace for sustained high utility costs, the reality is that Europe must replace an enormous volume of pipeline and LNG supply that once came from Russia.

This supply gap is not cyclical or temporary. It is a long-term reset that favors producers with scale, reliability, and proximity, placing Norway and, more specifically, Equinor at the center of Europe’s new energy order. Equinor controls roughly two-thirds of Norway’s natural gas exports, and Norway has already become Europe’s largest gas supplier, effectively inheriting Gazprom’s former role.

 As Russian volumes decline, Equinor gains incremental pricing power, enabling it to benefit from structurally elevated gas prices without the political baggage associated with Russian supply. The company is actively reinvesting its windfall, with 25 new wells currently being drilled in the North Sea, funded entirely through internally generated cash flows.

This expansion is occurring at a time when European demand remains inelastic, as governments continue to prioritize energy security over cost. Equinor’s cash generation translates directly into shareholder returns, with a dividend yield in the 9 to 11 percent range at current prices, supported by robust free cash flow and a conservative balance sheet.

Despite political rhetoric and green ambitions, Europe remains dependent on Equinor’s gas to keep industries running and homes heated. As a result, Equinor stands to benefit from a decade-long structural tailwind, positioning it as one of the clearest financial winners of Europe’s post-Russia energy realignment.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Valaris Limited by Alpha Ark in February 2025, which highlighted fleet scarcity, rising offshore day rates, and asset values trading far below replacement cost. The company’s stock price has appreciated by approximately by 16.64% since our coverage. This is because the thesis partially played out as the offshore cycle has been slower to reprice despite improving fundamentals. Nishant Chandra shares a similar thesis on EQNR but emphasizes geopolitical supply constraints and pricing power in European natural gas markets.

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Disclosure: None.