Equinix, Inc. (NASDAQ:EQIX) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

For Q1, we expect MRR will step down sequentially, yet remain elevated as a turn of revenues due to strong APAC leasing activity in January. Q4 revenues or FX hedges includes a $3 million benefit when compared to our prior guidance rates. Global Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $920 million, or 44% of revenues, up 12% over the same quarter last year due to strong operating performance, although down quarter-over-quarter due to a $15 million charge related to our planned corporate real estate activities and a higher seasonal increase in repairs and maintenance spend. Q4 adjusted EBITDA net of our FX hedges had a minimal FX impact when compared to our prior guidance rates and does include $4 million of integration costs. Global Q4 AFFO was $691 million, above our expectations due to strong business performance and favorable interest income, offset in part by higher seasonal recurring CapEx. The Q4 included a $4 million FX headwind compared to our prior guidance rates.

Global Q4 MRR terms stepped up to 2.4% in the higher end of our range due to customer optimizations. For 2024, we expect MRR churn to stay in the upper side of our churn range in the first half of the year, then moderate down in the second half and we expect this key metric average within our targeted 2% to 2.5% per quarter range for the year. Turning to our regional highlights, whose full results are covered on Slides 5 through 7. On a year-over-year normalized and constant currency basis, EMEA was our fastest-growing MRR region at 27% due to power price increases. Followed by our APAC and Americas regions at 9% and 7% MRR growth, respectively. The Americas region had a solid quarter of strong new logo growth and firm pricing led by our Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C. metros.

The Americas saw a step-up in cabinets billing in the quarter which now includes the intel assets in our nonfinancial metrics. EMEA business had a strong quarter led by our German business and our growth in urging market metros. We’ve had strong xScale activity across a number of our markets over the year. MainOne, our business in Ghana, Ivory Coast in Nigeria is performing better than our business case on a constant currency basis. Additionally, we signed our first deal in our Johannesburg 1 asset in South Africa which opens in Q3. And finally, the Asia Pacific region saw good performance in both our Japanese markets and in Mumbai. As it relates to our soon-to-be opened new markets in the region, we’re actively building a strong pipeline of key ecosystem customers which we expect to close prior to the IBX openings.

Also, we’re pleased to have recently announced our first long-term PPA in APAC for 151 megawatts. To date, Equinix has executed 21 PPAs across Australia, France, Iberia, the Nordics and the U.S. which will generate more than 1 gigawatt of clean energy once operational. This will certainly help these markets accelerate their clean energy transition. And now looking at our capital structure. Please refer to Slide 8. Our net leverage remains low relative to our peers at 3.7x our annualized adjusted EBITDA. Our balance sheet increased approximately $32.1 billion [ph], including an unrestricted cash balance of $2.1 billion. Our cash balance includes the settlement of approximately $433 million of ATM food equity sales, the timing triggered by the increase in our Q4 quarterly cash dividend.

Additionally, during the quarter, we executed an incremental $500 million of ATM forward equity sales which we expect to settle in late 2024. As I’ve noted previously, we expect to remain opportunistic in the timing and currency of our financing strategy, including our plans to refinance the $1 billion of debt maturing this year. Turning to Slide 9 for the quarter. Capital expenditures were $996 million, including recurring CapEx of $105 million. Since our last earnings call, we opened 7 retail projects, including 4 new data centers in Frankfurt, Kuala Lumpur, also Washington, D.C. In our xScale program, we opened 7 new projects and are now 87% leased or pre-leased for all of our operational and the Nose projects [ph]. During the quarter, we also purchased our London IBX asset and land for development in Mexico City.

Revenue from owned assets increased to 66% of our recurring revenues, a meaningful step up in last quarter, highlighting the progress we’ve had around asset ownership and long-term control of our assets. Our capital expenditures delivered strong returns, as shown on Slide 10. Our 174 stabilized assets increased revenues by 9% year-over-year on a constant currency basis or 5% excluding the benefit attributed to our power price increases. Our stabilized assets are collectively 85% utilized and generate a 27% cash-on-cash return on the gross PP&E invested. As a reminder, unlike prior years, we plan to update our stabilized asset summary on the Q1 earnings call. And finally, please refer to Slides 11 through 15 for an updated summary of 2024 guidance and bridges.

Starting with revenues. For the full year 2024, we expect top line growth of 7% to 9% on an as-reported basis or 7% to 8% on a normalized and constant currency basis, excluding the impact of lower power cost pass through to our customers. We expect 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 47%. And a 160 basis point improvement over last year due to strong operating leverage, targeted expense management initiative and power price decreases. We expect to incur $25 million of integration costs, primarily related to the main 1 business, projects which we expect to complete by end of year. AFFO is expected to grow between 9% and 12% compared to previous year. AFFO per share is expected to grow between 8% and 10% at the top end of our longer-term targeted range on both an as reported and normalized and constant currency basis.

2024 CapEx is expected to range between $2.8 billion and $3 billion, including about $220 million of recurring CapEx. And finally, after moving forward with the 25% increase in our per share cash dividend last quarter, we’re holding our quarterly cash dividend cost at $4.26 per share for 2024. For the full year, the cash dividend will approximate $1.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19%, 100% which is expected towards from ordinary income given our expected strong operating performance. So, let me stop here and turn the call back to Charles.

Charles Meyers: Thanks, Keith. In closing, 2023 was a year of significant progress and focused execution against our ambitious agenda. While macro uncertainties persist, we anticipate continued economic recovery as we move through 2024 and believe this will continue to embolden customers to accelerate their digital transformation agendas with a keen focus on capturing business value through the extraordinary power of AI. Against this backdrop, demand for hybrid digital infrastructure should continue to grow and we’re confident that the character of this demand will increasingly align with the distinctive advantages of Equinix, offering customer flexibility to deploy architectures that are more distributed, more cloud connected, more on-demand and more ecosystem rich than ever before.

Features that have positioned Equinix once again as a leader in IDC MarketScape’s worldwide assessment of data center services. Digital transformation is reshaping the fabric of our world, unlocking extraordinary possibilities and changing the basis for competition in almost every industry. Thanks to our distinct and durable advantages, Equinix is well positioned to capture these opportunities. Through the combined balance sheet power of Equinix and our JV partners, we’ll continue to invest in supporting the vigorous demand for large-scale cloud and AI infrastructure around the world. Simultaneously, we will leverage the reach and connectivity of the world’s leading retail platform to ensure that Equinix remains the best manifestation of the digital edge and a critical point of Nexus [ph] for modern cloud-centric architectures.

Reaffirming our purpose to be the platform where the world comes together, enabling the innovations that enrich our work, our life and our planet. So, let me stop there and open it up for questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first caller is Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley.

Simon Flannery: Great. Two, if I could. The first one on the revenue guidance. I think at the Analyst Day, you talked about 18% revenue guidance. Is that — is it the macro conditions causing the lower end to be at that 7% this year? And you’ve talked in the past, Charles, about in opportunities in the U.S. xScale, hyperscale market. Any update on your thoughts there?

Charles Meyers: Sure. Thanks for the question. Yes. Look, I would say overall demand signal, I think, remains strong. But as a reference it, we continue to see what we’re characterizing these crosscurrents in the business. And we’ve seen — seen those great bearing levels of revenue headwind over the past few quarters, really from 3 sources, I’d say. The first 2 really related to macro, as you mentioned and the last one, a bit more Equinix specific. First, I think a bit of extension in the sales cycle. In Q4, a bit similar to what we saw in Q1 of ’23 we saw more deal slippage which we really had not seen in Q2 and Q3. And so we thought that we were served in a better spot. But not a lot of lost deals but a number of deals that got pushed one or more quarters and that affected the quarter and the exit rate.

Second, we saw churn as slightly elevated. And I think more towards the high end of our range which really reflects the continuation of the optimization activity that we — and candidly, others across the infrastructure space have been highlighting throughout 2023. And then the last one I’d say is really more — a little more specific to us. I think we continue to grapple with capacity constraints in some of our key markets. And that hits us on the gross fitting [ph] since we really can’t accommodate larger footprint requirements in those markets and it hits us on the churn side, in some cases, as we work to try to free up capacity through doing some churn and though we’ve seen that certainly in markets like Cisco or so [ph]. All those factors combined to give us a little lighter Q4 and therefore a little bit lower exit run rate.

And as you know, in a 95% recurring revenue business that kind of puts you behind the power curve. So our full revenue guide come in a little bit below our Analyst Day range. But again, as you saw, a lot of things, I think, to be — to feel good about, given the xScale strength, I think we saw strong bookings performance in our retail sweet spot. A very healthy pipeline and starting to see signs of emergence of an even bigger AI-related pipeline. So we continue to be upbeat about the long-term opportunity. And importantly, I think despite the lower revenue guide, I think we’re continuing to see robust pricing, really driving some operating leverage in the business when that continues to really translate to those attractive returns on capital.

A growing dividend and AFFO per share performance that really is at the top end of our long-term guidance range. So I think that’s the overall thing. And again, I think really, we’d love to be in that range, believe me. And it’s disappointing that we’re not. But I think we’re giving you a realistic view of what we think the current market content will support and we’re going to go like hell to try to beat that. So that’s that. Relative to U.S. xScale [ph], yes, we are absolutely working on how we’re going to continue to be more aggressive in this market. We think there is opportunity. As you know, our tune and my tune specifically has changed a bit on that over the last couple of years. And I think we’re positioned to really continue to get some significant, both economic and strategic benefits by advancing our investment in that.

And so we’re hard at work on that. Nothing specific to report here but I think you’ll hear from us in the near future on that.

Operator: Our next caller is Aryeh Klein with BMO Capital Markets.

Aryeh Klein: Maybe just on the AI front. Clearly, the momentum is accelerating. Curious how you think about the TAM there, particularly relative to the $21 billion outlined at the Analyst Day. And then maybe just on the NVIDIA DGX offering, how meaningful can that become? And is that something you can ultimately offer anywhere and beyond the $12 billion [ph] or so markets initially targeted?

Charles Meyers: Yes. I mean, AI is a really interesting one. I think there is a massive opportunity. I think similar to what other people are seeing, we see it as hugely promising and moving very quickly but still pretty darn early in the overall cycle. So it’s — it clearly was a major factor in our xScale leasing. Obviously, record bookings there and I expect we’re going to continue to see a lot of strength and that’s informing a bit of that desire to lean in on that investment. I wouldn’t say it’s yet proving to inflect our retail bookings. As I just said, we kind of — we were a little shorter than we wanted to be there. But again, we’re seeing the green shoots there, we saw some great early on the retail side, both last quarter in terms of these network nodes to support large-scale training requirements with some of the service fares we talked about those.