Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), Amgen, Inc. (AMGN), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Where We’re Headed

Where we’re headed
As we’ve often seen, spearheading new treatment options in chronic therapies doesn’t always guarantee success. In fact, Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) and UCB discontinued a midstage study of fracturing-resistant experimental drug romosozumab in February after the top-line data painted a picture that didn’t seem optimal for ongoing clinical study.

One drug in particular, however, looks as if it’s poised to take on osteoporosis head-on, perhaps as soon as next year. The drug, odanacatib, which Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) is developing, had its late-stage trial stopped early by an independent monitoring committee because it was working so well. Whereas most bisphosphonates reduce fracturing by approximately 35%, Wall Street analysts suspect that when we finally get to see all of the data that odanacatib may reduce fracturing by more than 40%. Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK), in order to address whatever safety concerns remain surrounding odanacatib, is also running an ongoing safety extension trial and, barring good results, plans to file for a new drug application in early 2014. Early estimates place odanacatib’s peak sales around $3 billion.

The bottom line
Don’t be surprised if you see additional biopharmaceuticals focused on this chronic disease, but do understand that there are lifestyle choices you can make to lower your risk of developing osteoporosis.

From an investing perspective, it’s also clear that osteoporosis prevention is going to become a hotbed of R&D as the baby boomer population ages. Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) definitely has the clear path to success at the moment, but don’t discount the ease-of-use for Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN)’s Prolia, either, which may come with a few added complications but is by far the easiest to use.

The article The 5 Biggest Risk Factors for Osteoporosis originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Sean Williams.

Fool contributor Sean Williams has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen name TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen name TrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the handle @TMFUltraLong.

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