Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE:EC) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. We have a question from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. Please, Bruno, go ahead.

Bruno Montanari: Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a question about production and a question about the taxes. On production even, if we look at the top end of the guidance, it means that in the fourth quarter there would be a decline, right? So can you walk us through what would be the drivers of production now through the end of the year? And if there could be a possibility that you actually surpass the top end of the guidance in 2022? And then on the tax rate, if I understood correctly from the Spanish call, the company sounded less concerned it seemed about the amount of new incremental taxes that would flow through. But I mean on our numbers looking at the potential 15% extra points on tax it’s a meaningful impact over cash flow.

So I was wondering if that interpretation is correct. And finally, on the taxes can you give us an idea of the impact of the non-deductibility of royalties part and perhaps walk us through how that would be measured? It seems a little bit complex involving what is in kind royalties, royalties in cash being cost based among other items. So any visibility on that specific point would be greatly appreciated. Thank you very much.

Felipe Bayon: Thank you, Bruno. Good morning, and thanks for being here today. I’m going to ask Alberto to take us through a bit more detail on production for 4Q and next year. And then I’m going to ask Jaime to talk about tax reform and the impact. So Alberto, if you can go ahead.

Alberto Consuegra: Bruno, good morning, and thanks for your question. With regards to production in 4Q, as you mentioned, there will be a decline and because of the planned maintenance of the Cusiana gas plant, which was executed during the month of October. So what we are seeing is in October with weak production because of that, with an average of about a little bit under 700,000 barrels oil equivalent. But then, we expect a strong comeback in November and December. So at the end of the year, we should be in the higher side of the range that we provided to you between 700,000 and 705,000 barrels. So that’s 2022. With regards to 2023, we expect to have to maintain a higher production in the range of 720,000 to 725,000 barrels per oil per day.

Mostly, this will be the — if you look at what are the sources of the upside, it will be a strong production coming from our mature fields Rubiales, Chichimene, Akacias; new production coming from Cano Sur; and then also the additional production that we are seeing coming from Permian. So 2023 looks very exciting and 2022 as I mentioned, very much in line with what we told you before.

Felipe Bayon: Jaime?

Jaime Caballero: Hi, Bruno, hope you’re doing well. With regards to the tax reform, we basically see that we’re fundamentally talking about two effects. The first one and probably the most meaningful is the surcharge on corporate tax that’s going to be linked to the price environment. Basically, the way that the reform has been proposed, it triggers three levels of incremental surcharge associated to a historical price averages in the oil sector. And we’ve been looking at it in a lot of detail and we actually believe that the methodology that has been proposed in the reform is robust and it’s one that acknowledges the realities of the price environment in the sector. To that extent, we believe that this 5%, 10% or 15% surcharge that is linked to prices, it’s going to be closely related to the incremental cash flow that the companies are going to have.

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