2). A card removal effect caused by the presence of graded baseball cards. The presence of graded cards means that the highest-quality cards have been removed from the pool of ungraded cards on the market, thus resulting in lower overall values of ungraded cards. Consequently, focusing exclusively on ungraded values will understate card values by default.
3). The dramatic improvement over the past 20 years of the investment profile of newer issues. In addition to the premiums afforded to Gem Mint condition graded cards, the presence of a clear best product every year, smaller print runs, short-printed rookie cards and serialized parallels, autographed rookie cards, and an enhanced baseball prospect game lead to a more exciting hobby with a better product and better economics. Meanwhile, graded cards and eBay have brought enhanced liquidity to the cardboard stock market.
We’ll talk about the card removal effect and get to the newer issues another time. But first, let’s examine card values of key rookie cards from the 1980s and early 1990s.
Historical ungraded card values
If you look only at the prices of ungraded cards — as most casual onlookers tend to do — you’d get the impression that baseball card values have taken a nosedive over the past two decades (and, of course, they have). Moreover, you’d get the impression that even the best rookie cards of the best players would have made horrible investments.
Let’s take a look at historical ungraded prices of the key rookie cards from the 1980s and early 1990s. Prices are taken from the April issues of Beckett Baseball and Beckett Baseball Card Monthly magazines in five-year intervals starting in 1990, plus April 1993 to give us our 20-year reference point. Current pricing for February 2013 is taken from Beckett.com (with permission).
Notable RCs, 1982-1994: Historical Ungraded Pricing
| Card | Card No. | April 1990 | April 1993 | April 1995 | April 2000 | April 2005 | April 2010 | February 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 Topps Traded Cal Ripken Jr. RC | 98T | $12.50 | $275 | $225 | $200 | $120 | $150 | $120 |
| 1983 Topps Tony Gwynn RC | 482 | $20 | $40 | $32 | $60 | $25 | $20 | $25 |
| 1983 Topps Wade Boggs RC | 498 | $35 | $35 | $20 | $25 | $15 | $15 | $15 |
| 1983 Topps Ryne Sandberg RC | 83 | $12 | $60 | $32 | $20 | $15 | $20 | $20 |
| 1984 Donruss Don Mattingly RC* | 248 | $65 | $45 | $55 | $30 | $40 | $25 | $40 |
| 1984 Donruss Joe Carter RC | 41 | $15 | $45 | $70 | $12 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 1984 Donruss Darryl Strawberry RC | 68 | $36 | $45 | $10 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 1984 Fleer Update Roger Clemens XRC** | 27 | $85 | $450 | $300 | $200 | $225 | $120 | $120 |
| 1984 Fleer Update Kirby Puckett XRC** | 92 | $120 | $375 | $325 | $80 | $60 | $80 | $80 |
| 1985 Topps Mark McGwire RC | 401 | $18 | $30 | $8 | $175 | $40 | $30 | $15 |
| 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco RC* | 38 | $50 | $60 | $30 | $30 | $10 | $10 | $10 |
| 1986 Donruss Fred McGriff RC | 28 | $15 | $28 | $30 | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 1987 Fleer Barry Bonds RC | 604 | $1.50 | $20 | $35 | $40 | $60 | $15 | $12 |
| 1987 Fleer Barry Larkin RC | 204 | $3.50 | $7 | $4 | $5 | $3 | $3 | $8 |
| 1987 Donruss Greg Maddux RC | 36 | $1.50 | $6 | $8 | $20 | $10 | $10 | $10 |
| 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. RC | 1 | $9 | $55 | $75 | $150 | $50 | $40 | $40 |
| 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas RC | 300 | — | $60 | $85 | $40 | $20 | $12 | $20 |
| 1990 Leaf Sammy Sosa RC | 220 | — | $0.90 | $5 | $80 | $40 | $12 | $12 |
| 1992 Bowman Mariano Rivera RC | 302 | — | $0.20 | $0.30 | $8 | $15 | $40 | $60 |
| 1992 Bowman Mike Piazza RC | 461 | — | $1.50 | $35 | $60 | $40 | $20 | $20 |
| 1993 SP Derek Jeter RC | 279 | — | — | $7.50 | $100 | $60 | $100 | $150 |
| 1994 SP Alex Rodriguez RC | 15 | — | — | $12 | $85 | $80 | $80 | $50 |
Sources: Beckett Baseball Card Monthly/Beckett Baseball magazines dated April 1990, 1993, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010; Beckett.com, with permission.
*The 1986 Donruss Jose Canseco RC hit $105 in April 1991 and $75 in April 1992, while the 1984 Donruss Don Mattingly reached $85 in April 1991.
**XRC = extended rookie card. Refers to a card released in an extended set, as opposed to the card company’s standard set for that year.
