Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Excellent. I think that was quite clear. Thank you very much.

Operator: We have our next question comes from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

David Arcaro : Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks about the FFO to debt range and the target 13% to 14% for this year. I was wondering if you could give a sense of kind of where in that range you’re tracking given some of the pressures that you’ve been experiencing so far? And also just latest thinking on timing for when you can get comfortably above that 14% level?

Lynn Good : David, I would say the primary pressure in ’23 centers around deferred fuel, and we’ve given you a sense of how that is tracking. So we’re expecting to collect about $1.7 billion of that in ’23, which will strengthen the balance sheet. We also have the commercial renewables sale, where we’ll see proceeds of about $800 million before the end of the year. That is also credit positive. But as you indicated, weak weather goes the other way. And so stronger weather in July and hopefully a stronger third quarter will be an offset to that. So we feel like the 13% to 14% range remains an appropriate consideration for ’23 strengthening into ’24. Would you add anything to that, Brian?

Brian Savoy: I would say the final lap of the deferred fuel recovery in ’24 will move us into that 14% range, coupled with the North Carolina rate cases that are going to be in place in — for the full year in ’24. So those are big catalysts as we look forward. And the IRA benefits will start inuring in larger quantities as we move into the middle part of the decade as well.

David Arcaro: Okay. Understood. That’s helpful. And then secondarily, with interest rates rising again, I’m wondering if that’s representing an incremental headwind to your plan? Just how you’re managing that exposure on some of your short-term debt outstanding and also refinancing’s and new debt issuances as they come up.

Lynn Good : Yes, David, you’re rightly focused on that as are we. Interest rates higher for longer, weakness here with mild weather. So we are working through that, using all the tools you would expect us to use to [indiscernible] up the interest expense, but also looking at the levers we have within our financial plan to offset that as well. So it represents something that gets a great deal of attention, and we’re working our way through it. And I would again note that we’re reaffirming our guidance range for ’23 and continue to believe we can grow at 5% to 7% over the long term based on the fundamentals in the business. And as we move through these rate cases, I would just also emphasize that interest rates are being reset as we go through rate cases and that’s an important consideration, as you know.

David Arcaro: Got it. Thanks so much.

Operator: We have our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan. Jeremy, your line is now open.

Jeremy Tonet : Hi, good morning. Just wanted to come back to the drivers to this year, if I could. And as you noted, weather, inflationary pressure, higher interest rates, all represent headwinds, but I wanted to go to the load a little bit more. At the beginning of the year, you assumed 12-month retail load growth would be about 0.5%. I think in weather normal retail growth right now is down 2.7% year-to-date, and you expect to H2 ’23 low growth to be flat to 0.5%. So just wondering for — what trends you’re seeing in load that are different than expectations? Do you expect those to correct over time? And just any color that you could provide there would be helpful.