DT Midstream, Inc. (NYSE:DTM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operationally, for the quarter, total gathering volumes across both the Haynesville and Northeast averaged around 3.1 Bcf a day, up around 100 million cubic feet a day from the third quarter, driven by 10% growth in the Northeast. Now looking forward to 2024 and beyond. As we have done in the past, we are providing the current year guidance as well as an early outlook for next year. Additionally, we are providing a long-term growth target. For 2024, our adjusted EBITDA guidance range is $930 million to $980 million, reflecting a $10 million midpoint increase from our prior 2024 early outlook. Our 2025 early outlook range for adjusted EBITDA is $980 million to $1.04 billion, with the midpoint representing a 6% increase over the 2024 guidance midpoint.

Our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2024 and 2025 is supported by the incremental contribution from our growth investments, as well as expected of our major customers. Longer term, we are targeting adjusted EBITDA growth to be 5% to 7%, which is supported by our strong organic backlog advantaged asset positions, our strong balance sheet and high level of take-or-pay contracts. Our 2024 growth capital guidance is $300 million to $375 million. For 2025, we expect a similar overall level of growth investment at 2024. We currently have approximately $50 million of committed spend in 2025 and are working to advance a number of organic growth opportunities to FID. Our Board has declared a quarterly dividend increase to $0.735 per share, which represents a 7% increase.

Going forward, we expect to increase the dividend annually in line with our long-term adjusted EBITDA growth target of 5% to 7%. From a balance sheet perspective, we are pleased with our positioning on leverage and progress towards obtaining an investment grade credit rating. Our plan is to delever through 2027 into the low 3s for on-balance sheet debt and into the mid-3s for proportional debt. We have continued to execute on the plans we have shared with the rating agencies and the credit profile for our largest customers continues to improve. Therefore, we expect to attain an investment grade credit rating by the end of 2024. And with that, I’ll now pass it back over to David for closing remarks.

David Slater: Thanks, Jeff. So in summary, we are highly confident in our full year guidance for 2024 and early outlook for 2025. Over the course of our history, both pre spin-off from DTE and post spin-off, we have a proven track record of strong performance even in downward commodity price cycles. Our pure play natural gas portfolio is well contracted with long-term take-or-pay agreements. We have no commodity exposure and our integrated assets provide critical pipeline capacity to premium demand markets, which are expected to grow significantly between now and the end of the decade. We have a sizable organic project backlog, consisting of traditional midstream and tangible energy transition opportunities, which will deliver long-term value as we grow EBITDA and provide a reliable, growing dividend to our shareholders. And with that, we can now open up the line for questions.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We’ll go first to John Mackay at Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay: Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the time. Maybe I’ll just start on the gas macro. You guys have exposure to both the Northeast and the Haynesville. Obviously, we’re seeing gas around $1.60 right now. Would just be curious to see — hear from you guys what you’re hearing from your producer customers, whether or not you are seeing any shut-ins on your footprint right now? And I guess, what you’ve baked into the ’24 guide in terms of activity levels from the fourth quarter? Thank you.

David Slater: Good morning, John and yeah, that’s a topic that’s front and center on most folks mind right now as the commodity price seems to be mirroring the weather forecast that we’ve had this winter. I guess, what I’d say is our current guidance, John, reflects the most current information that we have from all of our customers. The other item I’d mention here is that we have significant MVC protection across our gathering segment that protects the downside. You would had asked about potential for shut-ins, last year, when we saw a very weak pricing in the summertime, we did see some modest shut-ins in our portfolio, and we’ve taken that learning last year and reflected that in our guide for this year. So the way I would describe our guidance is we’re very aware of the current price environment. We are very close to all of our customers and their plans and all of that’s reflected in our 2024 guide.

John Mackay: All right. That’s clear. Thank you for that. Maybe just looking to the new long-term EBITDA growth guidance of 5% to 7%. You also mentioned you have hit effectively 60% coming from pipelines now. If we’re thinking about that long-term rate, do — does pipelines continue to take share from gathering? Should they both kind of grow similarly? Anything on kind of that mix when you’re looking towards the outer years? Thank you.

David Slater: Yeah. Great question, John. So yes, as we sit here today pipelines is about two-thirds of the portfolio and a significant increase from when we spun the company and that’s been very intentional. I mean we’ve been very focused on growing that segment. It obviously carries a higher multiple. It’s the most stable revenue segment in our portfolio. In terms of that 5% to 7% growth forward, I’d refer you to the deck, John, we laid out on Slide 14, a nice description of the backlog, and we broke it out by segment and approximately 60% of the capital in the backlog is pointed towards the Pipeline segment. So our plan is to continue to grow it proportionately at about the same size as it represents in the portfolio today?

John Mackay: All right. Thank you very much and appreciate all the new detail on the subsector breakdown as well. Thank you.

David Slater: Thanks, John. Appreciate that.

Operator: We’ll move to our next question from Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet: Hi. Good morning.

David Slater: Good morning, Jeremy.