Dover Corporation (NYSE:DOV) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Richard Tobin: Joe, I don’t have Excel open here in front of me. I’d like to just — look at the end of the day this is just a general statement about the feedback that we’re getting from the marketplace, right. Everybody’s concerned about recession. And so there’s a bias towards being very careful with inventory also included. So we just think that the take off is back to the question that Steve asked before is that the backlog is there, but the take rate on that backlog should start out slowly, right, until everybody gets in place where we can, a lot of what we deliver goes right to the project site. And a lot of cases least the businesses that are tethered to distribution. So I’m, I’m not calling for a collapse in Q1 by any stretch of the margin.

But, but we don’t want to do it, the only reason that we’re calling it out is we’re coming out of periods where we had very strong Q1s in the seasonality versus the past got a little bit out of whack. So we’re just telling you to just be careful with Q1, the full year is the full year. And we’re confident in that. But I think they just we have to be, we have to recognize that is an amount of caution in the marketplace. And everybody’s going to be very careful about how much inventory they lay in until they can see what’s going on with kind of the macro, per se.

Joe Ritchie: Got it. No, that makes sense. I guess maybe my quick follow up, I think last quarter, you guys had called out I think like a roughly $0.23 benefit in DC from the cost actions. And you’re continuing to highlight, kind of margin improvement this year. Can you maybe so, firstly, we still on track for that $0.23. And then secondly, across the rest of the portfolio, where are you seeing opportunities for margin expansion in 2023?

Richard Tobin: I think all of the $0.23 was not in clean energy. I think $0.19 of the $0.23 if I remember correctly, more or less is in there. Yes.

Joe Ritchie: And some of that was in the fourth quarter too.

Richard Tobin: And some of that was in the fourth quarter also because we actually took the cost actions in Q3 But everything is on track. What you do as you get — you get a bad comp in that business because it was still delivering pretty heavily in Q1, but we expect that to be offset by clean energy components and below ground and car wash, which are margin accretive. So you get basically over the year, a positive inflection of mix on the portfolio, but I think you just have to be a little bit careful in Q1 just because the above ground is a bad comp.

Joe Ritchie: Got it. Makes sense. Thanks, guys.

Richard Tobin: Thanks.

Operator: Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

Andrew Kaplowitz: Rich, could you give us a little more color regarding your expectations for DPPS in 2023. What’s your conviction level in terms of biopharma connectors destock ending in Q1? I know you mentioned book is inflected sequentially. And then you’re — just in terms of margin, I know you’re forecasting flattish for the year in this segment. Given where Q4 2022 left off, it’s not that easy to get there. So maybe you could elaborate on your cost controls and productivity actions in that segment that gets you back to those 2022 levels?

Richard Tobin: Yes. Well, we did take cost out as volume came out of the sector for sure, and we did that progressively through the year. And I think we took a further action in the end of Q3, Q4, more or less. Look, orders are beginning to inflect. We are paying a lot of attention to the commentary of our customers out there who are basically saying it’s an H1 event and then expect to have all the inventory cleared. I will tell you that we have not been overly ambitious in our estimates for the full year. So I think if we’re going to — I think that we may have a little bit more difficult H1, but I think that we’ve got a better and even chance to have a better-than-expected performance in the second half of the year. But what we’d like to see is the order rates come up and us start expanding capacity to deal with it, which I think we can turn around to do it.

So yes, the flat margins year-over-year. We’re going to have to be really careful with our cost controls, and we’re going to have to deliver polymers and plastics and precision components are going to have to deliver on the volume that we expect to get out of those businesses. But it’s not like we’re being overly ambitious in volume in biopharma for the year.

Andrew Kaplowitz: Great. And then, Rich, I know you don’t want to tell us all about your Investor Day in March. But maybe in terms of — you’ve talked about portfolio management a little more frequently lately, so maybe update us on that. And then obviously, you talked at the beginning of your prepared comments around SKU management. We know you’ve been really focused on costs. So in terms of longer-term margin targets, anything to sort of talk about their preview there? I assume margins can rise pretty significantly from where they ended in 2022?

Richard Tobin: Well, I mean that’s going to be part of it Andy, at the end of the day. So let’s not the card before the horse, but we’re going to basically do what we did back in 2019 and try to give you a 3-year forward role by segment and what we think the contributing factors to it. I mean a lot of it is going to be on-going productivity, but I think what’s underestimated is that the organic revenue potential is underestimated. And I think we’ve done a lot of work in terms of mix here. So the mix of the products that we have today versus what we started with in 2020 is, I think, a lot different than that was back then. So it’s not some ambitious we’re going to grow completely out of the order. I think we’ll grow higher than basically the market expects us because we generally get bottom quartile expected growth rates and revenue, but I think mix is going to be the most important aspect of it.

Andrew Kaplowitz: Do you expect to give a specific target around organic growth? Or is it like GDP plus?

Richard Tobin: I don’t know yet.

Andrew Kaplowitz: Fair enough. Thanks Rich.