We came across a bullish thesis on Dollar Tree, Inc. on MBI Deep Dives’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on DLTR. Dollar Tree, Inc.’s share was trading at $130.41 as of February 23rd. DLTR’s trailing and forward P/E were 17.49 and 14.18 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. DLTR is showing resilience amid a challenging retail environment, positioning itself as a compelling investment for the near term.
Despite entering 2025 from a depressed base, DLTR has delivered strong performance, with 4.2% same-store sales growth in 3Q’25, driven largely by traffic from lower-income households while still attracting higher-income shoppers. The company continues to benefit from trade-down dynamics, gaining 3 million incremental households over the past year, 60% of whom earn over $100k.
Margin expansion is being fueled by a strategic shift toward higher-margin non-consumables and a multi-price model that now accounts for roughly 25% of Halloween sales, generating 3.5x more profit per unit than traditional $1 items. Management emphasizes that 85% of sales remain at $2 or below, preserving the company’s core value proposition. Share repurchases have also supported shareholder returns, with 8% of shares bought back at $90/share while the stock currently trades at $122.
Looking forward, DLTR has guided for 4–6% same-store sales growth next quarter and reiterated a 12–15% EPS CAGR through 2028. While delivery initiatives may face long-term competitive pressure from larger players like Walmart and Amazon, the company’s strategic execution, strong household penetration, and continued focus on profitability-enhancing initiatives suggest that DLTR is well positioned to outperform in the ongoing K-shaped economy, offering both top-line growth and margin upside for investors seeking exposure to resilient value retail.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) by Acid Investments in March 2025, which highlighted the company’s divestiture of Family Dollar, superior margins and EBIT per square foot relative to Dollar General, and growth potential from multi-price initiatives and store expansion. DLTR’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 88.42% since our coverage. MBI Deep Dives shares a similar view but emphasizes recent same-store sales growth, trade-down dynamics, and continued margin expansion, reinforcing DLTR’s strong near-term upside.
Dollar Tree, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 49 hedge fund portfolios held DLTR at the end of the third quarter which was 59 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of DLTR as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than DLTR and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
