Dole plc (DOLE): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Dole plc on Acid Investments’s Substack by N.R98. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on DOLE. Dole plc’s share was trading at $13.40 as of September 4^th. DOLE’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.38 and 9.26 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Dole is moving forward with a US$164 million secondary offering, representing a clean-up sale by the Murdock Group, following the passing of billionaire David Murdock earlier this year. The sale is largely a liquidity-driven move rather than a reflection of fundamental weakness, as Dole has remained a stable, cash-generative business. Historically, Dole was acquired and restructured by David Murdock through the bankruptcy of Castle & Cooke, IPOed in 2009, and then taken private again in 2013 at roughly 10x EBITDA. Over the past decade, Dole has delivered relatively flat revenue and EBITDA, with slightly reduced free cash flow conversion in the past two years due to increased capital expenditures, particularly in FY24.

Current estimates indicate EBITDA of approximately $385 million, interest expense of $67 million, and maintenance capital expenditure of $100 million, yielding roughly $170 million of free cash flow. With a market capitalization of around $1.2 billion and net debt of $800 million, Dole trades at an enterprise value near $2 billion, implying 5.4x EBITDA and 7.5x P/FCF—a significant discount to peers such as Fresh Del Monte (7.8x EBITDA) and Tyson Foods (8x EBITDA). The secondary offering, representing 11.3% of shares outstanding, is expected to be absorbed primarily by long-only investors, providing price support and potentially restoring the stock above $14.

With the Murdock estate exiting, the overhang on Dole shares is lifted, opening the possibility for a strategic review, including a potential sale or delisting. Historically range-bound between $10 and $15, the stock currently offers upside potential, with average analyst price targets roughly 34% above the offering price. Overall, Dole presents a compelling risk/reward scenario, trading at a substantial discount to its intrinsic value with multiple potential catalysts for revaluation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) by Charly AI in April 2025, highlighting growth from elevated egg prices, operational efficiency, and strategic acquisitions. The stock has appreciated approximately 22% since our coverage as strong demand and margin expansion played out. N.R98 shares a similar bullish view on Dole plc but emphasizes a secondary offering and the removal of legacy overhang as catalysts.

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Disclosure: None.